Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/6/2026 at 1:50 am EET.

Aktia's operational development in the last quarter of the year did not offer any major surprises, so the forecast changes after the earnings day remained moderate. However, we revise our target price to EUR 12.5 (from EUR 12.0) as Asset Management's new sales have continued their positive trend. We consider the share price decline on the earnings day to be excessive and thus reiterate our Accumulate recommendation as the stock's valuation remains moderate.

Non-recurring items spoiled an otherwise decent result

Aktia's comparable result in Q4 was roughly in line with our expectations, but significant write-downs of goodwill and other intangible assets from Taaleri Wealth Management, acquired in 2021, pushed the reported result into a loss. The loan portfolio grew slightly due to buoyant demand for corporate loans, and asset management sales also developed positively, with net subscriptions from international institutional clients being clearly positive. The current year's earnings guidance also offered no surprises, as Aktia expects a comparable operating profit roughly in line with 2025. Our morning comment on Aktia's Q4 report can be read here.

Only moderate forecast changes after the earnings release

As the operational development largely met our expectations, our earnings forecasts for the coming years also remained virtually unchanged. However, our dividend forecasts decreased slightly, as the growth in risk-weighted assets surprisingly pushed Aktia's solvency to its target level. In addition, the company expects a slight headwind to solvency from the update of internal credit risk models.

Like the rest of the banking sector, Aktia's earnings and profitability have clearly improved due to rising interest rates. However, the trend has temporarily reversed with interest rates, and in 2026, we expect Aktia's comparable EBIT to decline by another 3%. After this, we estimate that earnings will turn back to growth in line with business volumes. We estimate that the recovering loan demand will turn Aktia's loan portfolio to clearer growth starting from late 2026. Our growth forecasts for Asset Management, on the other hand, are moderate, reflecting the challenges in institutional sales. Achieving the ambitious growth targets (over 15% return on equity and 5% organic annual growth in commission income), which largely rest on Asset Management, would require significantly more favorable development than this. Although there were signs of improvement in 2025, evidence of a shift towards more sustainable growth is still insufficient.

However, Aktia's reported earnings and EPS are expected to continue growing in our forecasts in 2026, as one-off expenses significantly burdened the 2025 result. We expect Aktia's profit distribution to remain relatively strong, similar to the rest of the banking sector, with an average payout ratio of roughly 80% in our forecasts for the coming years.

The share price decline on the earnings day kept the expected return sufficient

We have examined Aktia's valuation through balance sheet multiples, the dividend model, and Nordic banking peers. The methods indicate a share value of EUR 11.4-14.1. Due to slightly improved net sales in Asset Management, we believe a suitable anchor point for Aktia's valuation is already at the midpoint of the range (previously closer to the lower end), which justifies a small increase in our target price. Although there is clear uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the turnaround in Asset Management sales, net sales have been positive for three consecutive quarters. Overall, we still consider Aktia's valuation attractive and believe the upside in the multiples and a strong dividend yield (7-8%) offer investors a sufficient expected return (>10%).