Canatu CMD: Primed for growth

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/27/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation for Canatu and revise our target price to EUR 8.5 (was 9.0 EUR). Based on the Capital Markets Day, Canatu's growth is expected to be driven by the semiconductor sector in the coming years, although there is still uncertainty regarding the annual growth rate. The targets set for 2030 (revenue of 100-150 MEUR and EBIT of 25-30%) are, in our opinion, realistically achievable with good strategy execution. However, after last year's growth disappointments, investors are unlikely to buy into the targets before seeing evidence of accelerated growth. At its current valuation, we see Canatu's long-term potential as attractive, but its realization still requires patience.

Each industry has a clear direction for the new strategy period

We already commented on Canatu’s strategy and financial targets here. For the growth of the strategy period, the progress of the Semiconductor sector's reactor business is of paramount importance, and sales of inspection membranes are also expected to continue growing. AI annually increases the demand for advanced chips, which leads to more efficient EUV scanner deployments. These require CNT-pellicles made from Canatu’s carbon nanotubes, the demand for which will grow in line with the adoption of new devices towards the end of the decade. Currently, Canatu also appears to be the only player capable of supplying sufficiently high-quality CNT membranes for pellicles, in light of which the company's competitive position seems very strong.

The impact of the Automotive industry and Medical Diagnostics on growth will remain significantly smaller than the Semiconductor sector (2030e 85% of revenue) during the strategy period, but progress in these areas will build Canatu's growth potential towards the 2030s. In Automotive, the company is focusing on ramping up mass production of ADAS camera heaters and aims for at least one customer market launch in windshield heating and/or solar cell applications by 2030. In Diagnostics, the launch of the first commercial product (a testosterone test) is planned for 2030.

We modestly lowered our estimates but still forecast Canatu meeting 2030 targets

Canatu commented that 2026-2028 will be a period of capacity building in the reactor business, during which most of the revenue will still come from the sale of new reactors. By 2030, recurring revenue (royalties and consumables, reactor upgrades) should already account for over 50% of revenue. We had previously expected royalties to be relatively significant in 2028, and we have revised our assumptions downwards in this regard. Additionally, we now forecast the number of delivered reactors to be 15 (previously 17) by 2030 (Canatu's target is 10-20 units). We highlight that the reactor business forecasts involve numerous upside and downside variables, which will be detailed in our extensive report, expected in April. We also raised the 2026 investment forecast to 16 MEUR (was 6.5 MEUR) in line with Canatu's anticipated range (14-18 MEUR). The investment peak is mainly due to investments in a second factory and the PELMIS EUV pellicle inspection system, whose delivery was postponed from 2025 to 2026. Overall, we now forecast 2030 revenue to be 100 MEUR and adjusted EBIT to be 26.5%.

There is plenty of potential if growth materializes

Canatu’s valuation (2026e EV/S 8x-9x) has priced in expectations of strong scalable growth, for which we believe the company's credible long-term growth story provides grounds. Should this growth materialize by the end of the decade, the share's valuation (2029e-2030e EV/EBIT 9x-6x) would become very attractive.