GomSpace (Investment case): Scaling to capture a fast-growing market opportunity
GomSpace published its Q1 2026 trading statement on 7 May 2026, reporting revenue growth of 43% to SEK 126.7m, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 9% landing in the middle of the 5-12% guidance range, and order intake doubling year-on-year to SEK 117.0m. Free cash flow was SEK -59.7m, reflecting planned investments to scale the business, while cash stood at SEK 226.9m at quarter-end. The 2026 guidance of SEK 540-640m in revenue (~30% growth at midpoint) and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5-12% was reiterated, supported by a healthy order backlog and expanding market opportunities.
Following the Q1 2026 report, we have updated our investment case one-pager. The update sharpens the sovereign capabilities angle as a second leg of the growth story, where the Ukraine/STETMAN joint venture serves as a replicable model for country-level demand, while contracts such as the VirtuaLabs RF monitoring constellation and the ongoing Unseenlabs Maritime Domain Awareness build-out underline the defense and surveillance momentum that underpins the case.
A new element we have added among the key investment reasons is the high-margin Products segment, which we view as a structural advantage most peers lack. Pure-play satellite systems integrators tend to leak the underlying component margin to suppliers, whereas GomSpace owns this layer in-house. Two consecutive years of profitability and the Q1 2026 EBITDA margin of 9% within the guidance range support that the company has reached an inflection point on earnings, even as continued reinvestment means the long-term margin potential is not yet fully visible.
On valuation, GomSpace trades at 4.8x 2026E EV/Sales, in line with the closest peer median of 4.8x, despite a meaningfully higher guided revenue growth of around 34% versus a peer median of ~25%. The gap is wider on 2026E EV/EBITDA (55.9x vs. 19.8x), although only three of six peers report positive EBITDA, which limits comparability of earnings-based multiples. Companies in the early stages of a potential super-demand cycle are typically valued on TAM potential rather than near-term multiples, but the current valuation leaves limited room for disappointments.
On the risk side, GomSpace must frontload costs, investments and working capital to capture the growth opportunity, which creates a meaningful risk if topline does not materialise as expected. The balance sheet supports current priorities, but the industry is entering a scaling phase where larger players may emerge as winners, and additional external funding cannot be ruled out. Heightened investor focus on national security and surveillance has elevated expectations, and as is typical with military and government contracts, procurement timelines can be longer than anticipated, which may test investor patience as GomSpace increasingly targets country-level customers with extended sales cycles.
For further insights into the Q1 2026 results and GomSpace's strategic direction, you can watch the event we hosted with CEO Carsten Drachmann: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gomspace-presentation-of-q1-2026-trading-statement
Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from GomSpace for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 15:30, 11/05-2026.