We have updated our investment case on Gubra to reflect a quarter in which the clinical picture changed materially. Both partnered obesity assets have moved into Phase 2, and the mechanism behind the wholly owned GUB-UCN2 programme has been validated by a large pharma transaction.

The single most important development for the internally owned pipeline came from outside the company. In August 2026, Genentech (Roche) licensed Hanmi's HM17321, a Phase 1 UCN2 analogue acting on the same CRHR2 mechanism as GUB-UCN2, for USD 190m upfront and up to USD 2.3bn in total value, with Genentech/Roche assuming development from Phase 2. That is marginally above the headline value of Gubra's own AbbVie agreement, for an asset at an earlier clinical stage than ABBV-295 was at signing. It is the first time a large pharma company has underwritten body composition as a mechanism ahead of any human efficacy data, and it removes the question of whether CRHR2 is commercially credible. It also puts a Genentech/Roche-funded competitor on a similar timeline and removes an obvious partner from the table, so the same event cuts both ways.

We have reflected this directly in the model. We now apply a higher milestone potential to GUB-UCN2 and assume partnering in 2027 rather than 2026, consistent with management's stated intention to run the asset to clinical proof of concept before licensing. We have also changed how the asset is sized. GUB-UCN2 is not developed as a weight-loss agent, so modelling it as a share of obesity market revenue overstated the price it can command while understating the patient base it can reach. We now apply an attach rate on the treated population multiplied by a revenue capture factor against a primary incretin, which is a more defensible framing than a market share assumption at a similar effective penetration.

On ABBV-295, AbbVie initiated Phase 2 in August 2026 and paid a USD 50m milestone, leaving USD 1.825bn outstanding. That payment is the only observed data point on the milestone ladder and we have booked it as such, at 2.7% of the package. The remaining schedule keeps its previous shape but is shifted one year later, reflecting a Phase 2 design of around 360 patients over 52 weeks with the primary endpoint at week 32, which points to completion in 2028. We have not redistributed weight between development, commercial and sales-based payments, since the split has not been disclosed. Elsewhere, we have raised the obesity market anchor to Goldman Sachs' June 2026 estimate of USD 114bn by 2030, up from the USD 95bn we previously used, and updated net cash to DKK 715m at 30 June 2026.

Boehringer Ingelheim advanced BI 3034701 into Phase 2 in July 2026, triggering a EUR 10m milestone. With ABBV-295 following in August, both partnered obesity assets have now cleared the stage where attrition concentrates. GUB-UCN2 has entered the clinic in a combined Phase 1/2a enrolling around 188 participants at a single site, chosen to allow detailed muscle volume and function endpoints. 

The next twelve months carry several distinct triggers. AbbVie presents the full ABBV-295 Phase 1 MAD dataset at EASD on 30 September, followed by topline from the ongoing Phase 1b study in obese patients, which reads across the lower-BMI MAD data at a baseline BMI of 30 to 45 and a higher share of women. Gubra hosts its R&D Event in London on 27 October, where the UCN2 development strategy, indication expansion and the 2030 growth strategy are expected to be set out. First single ascending dose data from GUB-UCN2 follow in H1 2027, on broadly the same timeline as Hanmi's Phase 1 completion. Continued clinical progress remains the primary potential re-rating trigger, with up to USD 1.825bn still outstanding on the AbbVie agreement.

The investment case rests on a differentiated pipeline aligned with where the category is heading, with ABBV-295 playing tolerability, BI 3034701 multi-receptor efficacy, and GUB-UCN2 body composition and healthy weight loss. The CRO segment, net cash and milestones from partnered assets fund the pipeline without the dilution typical of early-stage biotech. 

Key risks are the intensely competitive obesity field, GUB-UCN2's mechanism being commercially validated but clinically unproven with no human efficacy data yet on CRHR2, dependence on partners' prioritisation decisions, and a CRO margin recovery that is not yet delivered, with H1 2026 EBIT of DKK 1.5m at a 1% margin against full-year guidance of 10-15%. 

Taken together, and after isolating the D&P pipeline by valuing the CRO segment separately, our base case now implies a market-implied PoS of around 19%, against 27% in the bear case and 15% in the bull case. The historical benchmark is around 26% from Phase 1 to market and around 46% from Phase 2, and with two of the three main value drivers now in Phase 2, a blended benchmark for Gubra's pipeline sits closer to the higher figure. On that reading the gap between what the market is pricing and what history would suggest has widened rather than narrowed over the quarter. 

The investment case includes a page comparing GUB-UCN2 and HM17321 side by side on what each company has published. For further detail on GUB-UCN2 and how management views the Hanmi transaction and the partnering strategy, you can watch the event we hosted with Gubra's management: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/gubra-praesentation-af-h1-2026

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Gubra for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. Michael Friis and Victor Skriver, 12.00, 08.09.2026.