HomeMaid Q1'26: Sweeping up market share
Summary
- HomeMaid's Q1 revenue of 172 MSEK exceeded expectations by approximately 4%, driven by acquisition and strong organic growth, particularly in the B2C segment, which outpaced the RUT cleaning market.
- Margins compressed year-on-year, primarily due to Rimab's impact on the B2B segment, while B2C margins remained flat, slightly below estimates due to late-2025 capacity expansion costs.
- Following the Q1 report, revenue estimates for 2026-2027 have been modestly increased by 2%, with EBITA estimates largely unchanged, reflecting continued strong B2C growth and cautious B2B outlook.
- HomeMaid is considered fairly valued with a 2026e P/E of ~15x and adj. EV/EBITA of ~12x, with M&A optionality enhancing its attractive risk/reward profile, supported by its asset-light model and strong historical ROIC.
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HomeMaid delivered a solid Q1 report, with revenue coming in ahead of our estimate and profitability in line, though margins landed slightly below our expectations. The B2C segment beat our upgraded pre-Q1 estimates, supported by robust RUT market activity and the late-2025 commercial investments, which enabled market share gains in Q1. Margins compressed year-on-year as anticipated, primarily reflecting the structural Rimab dilution in the B2B segment, with the B2C margin being flat year-on-year due to the late-2025 capacity expansion. Following the Q1 report, we have revised our top-line estimate upwards, while keeping our near-term earnings estimates broadly unchanged. We continue to view the underlying fundamentals as solid and see M&A optionality as a key value driver. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation while maintaining our target price at SEK 38.
Revenue above expectations, margin slightly below
HomeMaid's Q1 revenue of 172 MSEK (+33% y/y) was ~4% ahead of our estimate. Reported growth was primarily acquisition-driven, but also supported by strong organic growth. B2C revenue of 102 MSEK (+11% y/y) beat our 99 MSEK estimate, supported by strong RUT market activity and the late-2025 commercial investments. Notably, B2C growth outpaced the broader RUT cleaning market*, and management noted that growth strengthened as the quarter progressed. This was mirrored in the market, which accelerated into quarter-end (March: +13% y/y) and carried solid momentum into Q2 (April: +9% y/y), which we believe points to a durable momentum in the B2C segment. The B2B segment grew 89% to 70 MSEK, primarily driven by the consolidation of Rimab, though we estimate legacy B2B grew organically ~6-8%, above our ~2% estimate. EBITA aligned with our 12 MSEK estimate, though the Q1 margin of 6.9% landed below our 7.4% estimate (Q1'25: 8.2%). The year-on-year compression came chiefly from B2B, where Rimab’s public sector-heavy contract mix structurally dilutes the segment margin. The B2C margin held flat year-on-year at 7.0%, marginally short of our estimate, as start-up costs from the late-2025 salesforce and staff expansion weighed slightly on margins.
Modest increases in our revenue estimates
Following Q1, we have made modest upward revisions to our revenue estimates (2026-2027e: +2%), driven by the B2C segment, where organic growth came in ahead of both our estimate and the broader RUT cleaning market. We believe the strengthening growth through the quarter, together with continued strong RUT market activity into Q2, suggests the momentum is durable rather than a one-quarter effect, supporting a higher growth assumption for the rest of the year. Regarding B2B, we have left our Q2-Q4 estimates broadly unchanged, as we remain somewhat cautious on new-customer inflow given the uncertain macro environment. Our EBITA estimates are largely unchanged in absolute terms, which translates into slightly lower margin assumptions, mostly concentrated in B2B and reflecting a heavier-than-expected Rimab margin dilution, while we keep our B2C margin assumptions broadly intact. We continue to expect group margin compression to ease as Rimab joins the comparison base from Q3'26. We slightly nudge our cash flow estimates up, since the underlying working capital development in Q1, adjusted for the settled 9 MSEK Rimab earn-out, showed a strong release and better cash conversion than we had expected.
The risk/reward remains attractive
Based on our updated estimates, HomeMaid trades at 2026e P/E of ~15x and adj. EV/EBITA of ~12x , which we view as fairly valued on standalone fundamentals relative to our acceptable range (P/E 11x-14x, EV/EBITA 9x-12x). While we see limited upside in earnings multiples on a fully organic basis, we believe the current valuation is attractive when adding the M&A optionality we have included in our framework. We believe the company is well-positioned to create value through systematic M&A in the fragmented cleaning market, supported by its asset-light model, strong historical ROIC, and proven ability to integrate acquisitions. We view the combination of fair standalone valuation, expected earnings growth, attractive dividend yield (2026e: ~5%), and M&A optionality as supporting an attractive risk/reward profile at current levels.