HomeMaid Q2'25: Waiting for stronger upside

HomeMaid delivered slightly weaker Q2 revenues than expected, while adjusted EBITA came in broadly in line with our estimates. The home cleaning market (RUT) remains favorable and supported continued strong growth momentum in HomeMaid’s B2C segment. On the B2B side, revenues continued to improve despite a still subdued macro environment, with management highlighting that the positive trend first seen in Q1 is stable. Management also noted good progress in the turnaround of Rimab, which was acquired in July. Following Q2, we have slightly inched our revenue estimates down, while keeping our profitability assumptions relatively unchanged. As such, we continue to see an insufficient risk/reward profile at the current valuation. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and keep the target price of SEK 35 unchanged.

Profitability in line with estimates

HomeMaid continued the year on its established path, delivering a strong 8% (y/y) revenue growth in Q2 to 136 MSEK, though slightly below our forecast of 140 MSEK (-3%). Growth was primarily driven by the B2C home cleaning segment, which grew 9% y/y (Inderes: 13%), complemented by a 6% y/y increase in the B2B segment (Inderes est. 6%). Management highlighted good customer inflow in B2C, supported by its proactive sales efforts and intensified marketing initiatives. They also emphasized that the positive trend shift witnessed in Q1 in the B2C segment to be stable after the softer 2024. While the headline EBITA (12 MSEK) came in above our estimate due to a positive one-off effect* of 1 MSEK, adjusted EBITA was 11 MSEK and more in line with our estimate. On a year-on-year basis, adjusted EBITA grew 37% (8% margin, Inderes: 7.6%). The primary driver of the earnings growth was mainly driven by improvements in the gross margin and a recovering B2B segment.

Estimate revisions were minor following the Q2 report

Following the Q2 report and an overall unchanged market outlook (B2C strong, B2B gradually recovering), we have trimmed our 2025 revenue estimate by 1%, with modest negative carry-over effects across the forecast period. The downward revisions stem mainly from softer B2C estimates, while our B2B forecast remains unchanged post-Q2. For 2025, we expect revenue to grow 19%  (9% organic) to 597 MSEK (was 605 MSEK). While our adjusted EBITA estimates remain largely unchanged, the lower expected revenue resulted in a slight increase in our margin assumptions. We now expect an adjusted EBITA margin of 9.2% (was 9%). However, our view on the long-term revenue growth and margin developments remains intact, and we expect HomeMaid to maintain solid growth beyond 2025 (26-28e: 4-6% organically). While the Rimab consolidation from Q3 and onwards will weigh slightly on margins (EBITA-% 2025e pro forma: 8.8%), we expect HomeMaid’s strong focus on margin optimization to somewhat offset the initial dilutive effect over time.

We remain on the sidelines

With a high share of recurring revenues, stable margins, and an asset-light model, HomeMaid generates solid cash flows that can be redeployed into roll-up acquisitions at attractive multiples. Provided financial discipline and integration capabilities are maintained, we see M&A as a long-term value-accretive growth lever. As our DCF value (SEK 32) does not capture this potential, we place greater weight on earnings multiples. Based on updated 2025-2026e forecasts, HomeMaid trades at forward 25-26e adjusted EV/EBITA and P/E multiples of 12-11x and 16-15x, respectively. As such, we believe the current earnings-based valuation levels remain on the high side relative to our acceptable valuation range (adjusted EV/EBITA: 9x-12x, adjusted P/E: 11x-14x). While we believe it is reasonable to value HomeMaid toward the upper end of the acceptable valuation range, given the strong growth on the B2C market, coupled with a recovering B2C business, we believe current multiples suggest HomeMaid to be priced fairly at this time. Although earnings growth is expected to gradually neutralize valuation multiples in 2026-2027, we don’t see clear upside in these yet and note that the expected return relies largely on a ~4% dividend yield, which we consider insufficient. Hence, we await a more attractive entry point at this point.