HomeMaid's Q2 report was a tale of two segments. Revenue came in essentially in line with our estimate. Profitability, however, missed clearly, driven entirely by the B2B segment, which swung to a negative EBITA. The shortfall stemmed from one subsidiary, where price-driven competition led to the loss of contracts, with transition costs and a temporarily weaker gross margin followed as the lost volume was largely replaced. Management has launched an action program, which already shows early effect, and is accelerating the transfer of the proven Hemstäd operating model into B2B. We view the issue as temporary and fixable, but it takes time, so we cut our near-term profit estimates, weighted mostly to 2026. As such, we view the post-Q2 share price drop as keeping the risk/reward at very attractive levels, especially when considering the M&A optionality in the investment case. We reiterate our Buy recommendation but lower our target price to SEK 37 (was 39) on downward revised earnings estimates.

Revenue in line, but a clear margin miss on B2B

HomeMaid's Q2 revenue of 183 MSEK (+34% y/y; Q2'25: 136.5 MSEK) was in line with our estimate, both at group and segment level. Reported growth was again primarily acquisition-driven, but also supported by solid organic growth. B2C revenue grew 15% to 114 MSEK, of which we estimate 12% was organic. As such, the B2C segment once again outpaced the broader RUT cleaning market, which in our view confirms that the late-2025 commercial investments continue to translate into above-market growth and market-share gains. The B2B segment grew ~84% to 69 MSEK, overwhelmingly driven by the Rimab consolidation, with modest underlying growth ex-Rimab. Group EBITA of 8.8 MSEK, however, was well below our ~13.2 MSEK estimate, with the margin falling to 4.8% (Q2'25: 8.8%). The miss came entirely from B2B, where EBITA turned negative at -0.6 MSEK (Q2'25: 2.9 MSEK). The shortfall was driven by one subsidiary, where intense price competition led to the loss of contracts, and replacing that volume drove transition costs and a temporarily weaker gross margin. B2C, meanwhile, was solid, with EBITA of 9.4 MSEK and a stable margin of ~8.3% (Q2'25 adj.: 8.2%).

Downward revisions to our near-term profit estimates

Following Q2, we leave our group revenue estimates essentially unchanged, though we make minor adjustments at the segment level. For 2026e we trim B2B by ~2% on a slightly more cautious near-term view after the competitive contract losses, offset by a ~1% lift to B2C, supported by the continued strength of the RUT market into Q3 and proven effects from the company’s 2025 commercial investments. The more substantive change is to our profitability estimates: we cut our 2026e group EBITA by ~14% to reflect the negative B2B result, coupled with what we expect to be a gradual rather than immediate margin recovery. We model the B2B margin trough in Q2'26 and a progressive recovery back toward mid-single digits through 2027, as the action program restores the gross margin, the learning-curve cost on the replacement volume unwinds, and the proven Hemstäd operating model is rolled out. Importantly, we treat the setback as transitional rather than structural, so our 2027-2028e EBITA comes down far less (~3%).

The post-Q2 drop sweetens an already attractive entry point

On our revised estimates, HomeMaid trades at adjusted EV/EBITA of ~12x and P/E of ~15x for 2026e. We view these as stretched, where the P/E in particular sits above the upper end of our acceptable range (EV/EBITA 9x-12x, P/E 11x-14x), reflecting the temporarily depressed earnings. However, looking past the trough, the 2027e multiples (EV/EBITA ~10x, P/E ~12x) screen on the lower side of those ranges as B2B margins recover, which we view as the more representative gauge of HomeMaid's underlying earnings power. We continue to see the B2C business as high quality and the B2B setback as temporary rather than structural. Adding an attractive ~6% dividend yield, a scalable asset-light model, strong historical ROIC (5Y avg. 32%), and the M&A optionality embedded in our framework, we believe the risk/reward is highly compelling following the post-Q2 share price drop.