Inderes Group - Well on track despite market uncertainty - SEB

With reported numbers well in line with our estimates, Inderes’ Q1 leaves us cautiously positive. The company has continued to win market share in AGMs, international sales grew by 15% (topping our estimate) and the number of research contracts increased well. We think the market outlook could improve rapidly should the situation in the Middle East ease. Fair value range remains unchanged at EUR 18-20.

Q1 outcome: In-line report with mainly positive takes

Inderes’ Q1 hit our estimates, leading us to make small adjustments. Although talking about small numbers, we highlight international business growth of 15% in Q1. The 3.5% q/q jump in the number of research customers was also a positive surprise and it once again proved its strong hit ratio among newly listed companies. We also emphasise Inderes’ ability to keep costs controlled and recall that it had some one-off costs in Q2/25. All in all, our 2026E EBITA rises by 2%.

International expansion in right direction – no fast wins in sight

On a positive note, management reminded that there are companies looking at the IPO opportunity. Hence, should the prevailing geopolitical situation ease, we think the Finnish market could return to growth relatively rapidly. However, we still argue that in Inderes’ investment case, the highest upside lies in international expansion. While it has had a challenging start, we think the company’s revised approach will start to gradually bear fruit. All in all, we see international sales growing from EUR 4.4m in 2025 to EUR 6.6m by 2028E.

Fair value range remains intact at EUR 18-20

Inderes currently trades at 2026E EV/EBITDA of 9x, which is well below historical levels. In terms of Inderes’ valuation, we continue to justify it by the relatively low cost of capital for the Finnish business, while international growth is more uncertain and needs to be valued with a high cost of capital.