Inderes Q1 2026: A Small Beat, in the Right Direction
Summary
- Inderes' Q1 2026 results slightly surpassed expectations, with revenue at 5.5 MEUR and an EBITA margin of 9.1%, driven by improved profitability.
- Recurring revenue increased by 7.9% and international revenue by 15%, largely due to strong performance in the Software segment.
- Following the results, the full-year 2026 revenue estimate was raised to 20.7 MEUR, while the EBITA margin forecast remains at 12.1%.
- The Buy recommendation is maintained, and the target price is increased to 20€, suggesting a 24.6% potential upside from the current share price of €16.05.
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| Key Metrics | Q1-Estimate | Q1-Actual | Difference | FY 26e Old | FY 26e New | FY-Change | |
| Revenue | 5,4 MEUR | 5,5 MEUR | +0,1 MEUR | 20,5 MEUR | 20,7 MEUR | +0,2 MEUR | |
| Revenue growth | 2,6 % | 3,7 % | +1,1 % p.p | 7,6 % | 8,2 % | +0,6 % p.p | |
| EBITA | 0,4 MEUR | 0,5 MEUR | +0,1 MEUR | 2,5 MEUR | 2,5 MEUR | +1,9 % | |
| EBITA-% | 6,2 % | 9,1 % | +2,9 % p.p | 12,1 % | 12,1 % | - |
Inderes' Q1 2026 results modestly exceeded our estimates. Revenue grew 3.7% to 5.5 MEUR (est. 5.4 MEUR), while the EBITA margin came in at 9.1% (est. 6.2%), driven primarily by better profitability than expected. Recurring revenue grew 7.9% and international revenue 15%, both supported by strong momentum in the Software segment.
Following the results, we raised our full-year 2026 revenue estimate from 20.5 MEUR to 20.7 MEUR, while keeping our EBITA margin forecast unchanged at 12.1%. We have revised our segment assumptions to better reflect the Software segment's outperformance, partly offsetting a more cautious view on the Events business in Sweden.
We resume our Buy recommendation and raise the target price to 20€, implying approximately 24.6% upside from the current share price of €16.05.