Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/23/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

Kalmar's Q2 figures were overall slightly positive compared to our expectations, and the services business, which had faced challenges earlier in the year, improved rapidly. The company's market situation also remained stable, and the company did not make changes to its guidance for the current year. Our earnings forecasts for the coming years also remained virtually unchanged despite the revisions we made. Thus, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and EUR 46 target price for the stock. 

Earnings slightly ahead of expectations, driven by revenue

The company's Q2 revenue grew by as much as 14%, which clearly exceeded our and consensus growth estimates of 6%. At the segment level, both Equipment and Services grew faster than we expected. We believe growth was driven by certain larger equipment deliveries and service projects. In contrast, the North American spare parts sales, which slowed down Services' development in Q1, had not yet shown significant recovery, reflecting the steadily sluggish market activity. Kalmar's adjusted EBIT amounted to 59.6 MEUR, which slightly exceeded both our (58.0 MEUR) and consensus (57.6 MEUR) estimates. However, the company's operating margin fell short of expectations, driven by Equipment (Q2'26: 12.4% vs. Inderes estimate 13.4%, consensus 13.6%). According to the company, the segment's margin was affected by the product mix and certain elevated costs (e.g. logistics). In contrast, the Services margin recovered faster than expected (17.0% vs. Inderes 16.6%, consensus 16.3%) supported by volumes, which was naturally encouraging.

Kalmar's Q2 order intake (449 MEUR) remained stable year-on-year, despite fewer large orders. This was also well in line with the consensus estimate but exceeded our order intake forecast (429 MEUR) calculated in connection with the pre-comment. The beat against our estimates came from the stable Equipment segment, while Service orders fell slightly short of our forecast.

Our near-term estimates remain practically unchanged

Kalmar reiterated its guidance and expects its comparable EBIT margin to exceed 12.5% this year. After H1’26, Kalmar’s margin was 12.4%, meaning that achieving the guidance requires an increase in profitability in H2. However, the company seemed quite confident in this regard. According to the company, the demand situation remained stable. It expected overall demand to remain at roughly the same level as in previous quarters for the rest of the year, which was also in line with our projections. The impact of the Middle East situation, however, appears to have been limited so far, apart from delays in decision-making for large orders.

Overall, we made minor revisions to our segment forecasts, but our Group-level earnings forecasts remained almost unchanged. Due to the realized development and our revisions, we now expect the current year's adjusted EBIT margin to be 12.8% (was 13.0%). However, we expect earnings growth in the coming years to remain brisk on average (2026e-28e adj. EBIT growth: 4-12% per year), supported by container traffic growth, the company's strong market position, and the Driving Excellence program.

Valuation is attractive

With our updated forecasts, the EV/EBIT ratios considering Kalmar's strong balance sheet in 2026 and 2027 are approximately 11x and 9x. The corresponding P/E ratios are around 15x and 13x. We consider these multiples to be moderate for a quality company, and they are already below the midpoints of the levels we deem neutral for this year (EV/EBIT 11x-13x, P/E 14x-17x). Given the earnings growth we anticipate, we consider the risk-adjusted expected return on the share rather attractive. Our positive view is also supported by our DCF model (EUR ~49 per share).