Translation: Original published in Finnish on 7/16/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Lemonsoft but lower the target price to EUR 6.0 (was 6.5 EUR). We have factored the divestment of Finvoicer, announced Wednesday, into our estimates. Overall, the acquisition made about three years ago was unsuccessful for Lemonsoft. Following the divestiture, the company will be a more focused software provider for industrial manufacturing and wholesale & retail, and the preconditions for the company's organic growth are strengthening. Additionally, there have recently been preliminary signs of a market recovery, which will support Lemonsoft's future sales. Given the earnings growth outlook for the coming years, we believe the share valuation (2026e EV/EBIT 10x) is very moderate. 

Lemonsoft divests Finvoicer

In the arrangement, Lemonsoft will sell the entire share capital of Finvoicer, and the transaction is expected to be completed during August 2026. In light of the arrangement announced in the press release, the purchase price received by Lemonsoft is presumably quite small. We have previously stated that the Finvoicer acquisition made in 2023 appears, in retrospect, to have been unsuccessful. Business development has been weighed down by increased customer churn, as well as, historically, challenges in the invoice financing business, which have, however, already been resolved. Thus, we believe that divesting the business and freeing up resources is highly warranted in this situation so that the company can focus on industrial manufacturing and wholesale & retail software solutions, in line with its core strategy. Billgo Oy, which offers invoicing software for small businesses under the HelpostiLasku brand, will remain directly owned by Lemonsoft in the transaction instead of by the buyer. To our knowledge, this product has been highly successful under Lemonsoft. Finvoicer Rahoitus Oy, which focuses on invoice financing, will also remain with Lemonsoft in the arrangement.

We updated our estimates to reflect new guidance

As a result of the arrangement, Lemonsoft lowered its revenue guidance for 2026 by an amount corresponding to the revenue that will no longer be included in the group’s consolidated revenue. According to the new guidance, the company estimates that its revenue will grow by −1–5% in the 2026 financial year (previously 1-7%). The company expects the adjusted EBIT margin to remain at 23–29%. In early July, the company had already lowered its growth guidance slightly, partly due to technical factors (Lixan’s financing arrangement and Lemonsoft’s ownership falling below 50%), but at the same time, customer churn has remained high in the first half of the year. Our previous growth estimate (6%) was already within the previously lowered guidance, but we have now preliminarily updated our estimates to reflect the divestment of Finvoicer. We now estimate 2% revenue growth and an adjusted EBIT of 27.6% for this year. Overall, our earnings forecasts for the next few years decreased by about 5-6%.

Valuation is very moderate

Based on our forecasts, Lemonsoft's EV/EBIT ratio, adjusted for PPA amortization from acquisitions, is 10x in 2026. We believe the valuation has fallen to a low level, and Lemonsoft's share no longer prices in significant growth expectations. With the company's recent arrangements, its focus is even more sharply on growing the software business in its core industries, for which the market outlook shows signs of improvement. If the market starts to pick up and the earnings growth that we forecast materializes, the valuation looks very low for the coming years (2027e-2028e EV/EBIT 9x-8x). A key challenge for Lemonsoft's valuation increase in the short term is the generally weak sentiment for SaaS stocks. If the company can deliver its targeted earnings growth in the coming years, we estimate that investors' concerns will eventually dissipate, and the valuation will return to a higher level than at present.