Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/8/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Nightingale Health recently announced that it had signed a service agreement with the Michael J. Fox Foundation worth approximately 5.8 MEUR. We are raising our estimates based on this agreement, particularly for the current financial year. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and revise the target price to EUR 1.3 (was EUR 1.1) in line with our revised estimates.

Large-scale proteomics project supports brain health research

According to the agreement, Nightingale will analyze 60,000 UK Biobank blood samples with Alamar Biosciences' NULISAseq Neuro 220 test. The proteomics test panel, which uses the partner's technology, focuses on neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease. The new protein biomarker data generated by Nightingale will be submitted to UK Biobank in accordance with the foundation’s guidelines and made available to the wider research community in 2027. Nightingale has previously analyzed samples from all 500,000 UK Biobank participants using its own technology, and the data now being generated will supplement this database. We believe that this agreement is a testament to Nightingale’s continued strong position in the field of international medical research and its role as a partner to major biobanks.

Nightingale’s revenue for the financial year ending on June 30, 2026 (2025/ 26) was 5.5 MEUR. The company has established revenue guidance of at least 10 MEUR for the current fiscal year. We have estimated that achieving this target will require significant new deals in addition to existing projects (such as the 2.4 MEUR Aalborg project, which will mostly be recognized as revenue in the new fiscal year). The recently announced approximately 5.8 MEUR contract is of significant size in relation to the company’s last financial year and also in light of the guidance for the current financial year. The revenue recognition schedule for the agreement is still somewhat uncertain, but we estimate that revenue will primarily be recognized during the current fiscal year because the press release states that the research results will be available to researchers as early as the 2027 calendar year. The project margin is likely lower than that of Nightingale's NMR analysis, as the project delivers the partner's analysis, which has a decreasing effect on Nightingale's margin.

The agreement raises our estimates

We are raising our revenue estimates, particularly for the current financial year (+18%). Our estimates have already factored in significant growth, and the recently signed agreement will support achieving these estimates while also prompting a further upward revision. Our growth expectations for the coming years are also rising moderately, as Nightingale's growing proteomics capabilities will support winning future customer accounts. In addition to the recently signed agreement, the flurry of recent news about new, smaller partnerships contributes to our growth forecasts and reduces the associated risk. Our earnings forecasts rise due to higher revenue, particularly for the current fiscal year, but also more moderately in the coming years. However, we assume that the margin of the new contract will be somewhat lower than Nightingale's typical margin, which is why our earnings estimate for the current fiscal year increases by a smaller amount than the revenue (+6%).

Valuation is moderate, but risks are high

Based on our DCF model, the share value is EUR 1.3. Nightingale’s fundamental-based valuation is challenging, as realistic scenarios vary between loss and multiplication of invested capital. On the basis of DCF scenarios, we estimate the fair value of the share to fall within a wide range of EUR 0.5-4.4. Investors must believe in the company's global commercial breakthrough, take a long-term view of the stock, and accept the risk of capital loss. The financial risk is elevated due to cash burn, which is why achieving rapid growth is an absolute prerequisite for a good share return.