Revenio Extensive Report: The future looks bright

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 1/20/2025 at 8:00 am EET.

Under the iCare brand, Revenio offers excellent tonometers, fundus imaging devices and perimeters. The next step in the company's evolution is to move from being an equipment supplier to providing complete ophthalmic diagnostic solutions, where software and a proprietary AI algorithm are critical. The strong core business will improve its performance in the coming years, and the company has attractive growth prospects, an excellent track record of shareholder value creation and of ability to transform. We consider the current valuation level to be quite attractive in relation to the earnings growth outlook for the coming years and reiterate our Accumulate recommendation with a target price of EUR 32.0.

Balanced mix of new and old in eye health technology

In a decade, Revenio has grown from a niche player in one technology to a global provider of ophthalmic devices and software solutions. iCare ophthalmometers, with their superior RBT technology, have become market leaders in their segment, and as patent protection weakens, Revenio has a very long lead over its competitors. iCare imaging devices have also grown strongly, improving profitability along the way. In particular, the DRSplus camera and the EIDON product family are highly competitive, giving the company two strong pillars. A new growth driver, diabetic retinopathy screening, has also been found in imaging devices, where DRSplus can also be combined with the proprietary Thirona Retina AI algorithm. Software solutions (such as ILLUME) have been added to the overall offering, which in the long term will enable the transition from a high-end equipment manufacturer to a total solutions provider. The company is still in the early stages of this journey due to the lack of FDA approvals, but early indications from Europe are promising. The next logical target for expansion, in our view, would be the OCT market, where the company has not found affordable takeover targets.

By far the most profitable company in the sector has built a strong foundation for profit growth

Revenio's profitability has been weak in recent years, but we are not concerned about the company's competitiveness. iCare tonometers are back on track, the installed base is growing, and probes already account for about 45% of tonometers sales. Imaging devices (in particular DRSplus and the Eidon family) are gaining market share and will continue to grow many times faster than the overall market. We estimate that more than 30% of Revenio's revenue is recurring, giving the company a strong base to build on. The company's growth is supported by a number of moats related to competitive protection of technologies (such as patents), brand and reputation, and a high barrier to entry. From a sluggish current level, earnings growth will be strong in the coming years (projected EPS growth of around 25% from 2025-2027), with double-digit revenue growth at a gross margin of around 70%. At the same time, the company is maturing new growth initiatives, such as ILLUME and AI solutions in imaging devices and software and HOME2 tonometers to carry the weight in the future. The main risks are related to the weakening of patent protection for RBT technology (potentially increasing competition), the development of the company's growth ambitions (FDA approvals) and the success of the software strategy in the AI-driven disruption.

Moderate valuation relative to earnings growth outlook

Once earnings growth kicks in, Revenio's valuation (2025e adj. EV/EBIT 21x) is attractive, but the investor should be compensated for bearing the forecast risk. We believe the relative valuation is reasonable and the DCF model supports our target price. Longer-term expected returns are particularly attractive, and we believe total returns of around 20% are realistic over the next few years. We consider the overall risk/reward ratio to be attractive.