Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/13/2026 at 8:00 am EET.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Revenio but lower our target price to EUR 13.0 (was EUR 16.5). Earnings in Q3 were clearly below our expectations as the combined company's cost base proved to be heavier than anticipated and growth in North America faltered amid organizational integration. We have lowered our estimates, and earnings growth relies even more heavily on synergies. However, in our view, the company is already priced for failure, and thus, the expected return for a patient investor remains very attractive.

Profitability fell well short of expectations

Q3 revenue was 58.8 MEUR, missing our forecast. As for Visionix, revenue developed roughly as expected, but the former Revenio did not return to growth in Q3. The group's pro forma revenue, adjusted for currency effects, decreased by one percent. The disappointment originated in North America, where combining sales organizations disrupted sales during the period. The lack of organic growth increases the pressure to streamline the cost structure.

Earnings clearly missed expectations: comparable adjusted EBIT was 6.5 MEUR (estimate 8.8 MEUR), and excluding one-off tariff refunds, it would have been only ~4.6 MEUR. The cost structure was more than 2 MEUR higher than our estimate, and Visionix's gross margin (estimated at around 53%) showed no signs of the company's profitability program being viable. The normalization of cash flow (+5.5 MEUR) was a positive development, which is also important given the high debt levels. Following the rights issue in October, the net debt is approximately 150 MEUR, and the net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio is just over 3x, meaning the balance sheet is not a pressing concern. There isn't much wiggle room, as the covenant limit will tighten to 3.5x starting in Q2'27.

Earnings growth increasingly relies on synergies

Revenio lowered the upper limit of its revenue guidance (190–200 MEUR, prev. 190-205 MEUR), evidently mainly due to soft demand. We lowered our revenue forecasts by 3–5% and our 2026 adjusted EBIT estimate by 17% to 26.7 MEUR, as the cost structure was also higher than we anticipated. Profitability (adj. EBITA-%) was estimated to remain at a satisfactory level, but this information has little guidance value.

There was also downward pressure on earnings estimates for the coming years, although the trajectory was gentler. Reported figures were weighed down by an increase in one-time expenses affecting profit and loss because the company apparently does not capitalize IT system expenses on its balance sheet. However, the key takeaway is that efforts to improve earnings through synergies will start from a lower base than before since the pro forma EBITDA for 2025 was just over 45 MEUR, whereas this year's figure will remain around 40 MEUR. The targeted synergy benefits of 20 MEUR will play an increasingly important role in earnings growth in the coming years. We expect the adjusted EBITDA to rise from around 15% to 22% in 2027 supported by them. According to the company, the integration is progressing as planned, and at least in terms of costs, the company has swiftly implemented measures.

Bar has been lowered again

The share price fell 11% yesterday, reaching a new low for the iCare era. Adjusted EV/EBIT is around 12x with our 2027 estimates and 9x with our 2028 estimates. These are around half of the peer group's level. The market clearly does not believe in the success of the integration or the earnings outlook for the coming years, and the burden of proof here rests firmly on the company. However, we believe the price already reflects many disappointments. Nevertheless, the bar set by the valuation has been lowered so much that even moderate performance in the coming years will be enough to surpass it. We lowered our target price due to forecast revisions and slower growth, yet we still consider the risk/reward ratio to clearly favor investors. We maintain our Buy recommendation and still urge patience, even though pressure to sell the stock will persist in the near term.