contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Antti Siltanen

Faron is a global, clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focused on tackling cancers via novel immunotherapies. Its mission is to bring the promise of immunotherapy to a broader population by uncovering novel ways to control and harness the power of the immune system. The Company's lead asset is bexmarilimab, a novel anti-Clever-1 humanized antibody, with the potential to remove immunosuppression of cancers through reprogramming myeloid cell function. Bexmarilimab is being investigated in Phase I/II clinical trials as a potential therapy for patients with hematological cancers in combination with other standard treatments.

In January 2025, you were also holding an analyst accountable for their estimates here. At that time, you said you didn’t see partnering priced into the current share price, “which is almost a hundred percent certain for this year, or the sale of the whole outfit.” In your view, the 12-month target price was wrong. You also mentioned that “When that AI sets a target price of about €12, the algorithms between you are quite different. I suspect that the AI has been developed by several people in this case, so the target price you gave for Faron is increasingly called into question.” Let’s look at the facts. Back then in January 2025, Antti’s 12-month target price was 2.8 euros. Now we know that even that target price was not met by a margin of about 25%, when looking at the price before the crash in early February. It was still a pretty good estimate compared to, for example, the 12-euro target price you threw out there. We also know that your views on “almost 100% certain” things have materialized with zero percent accuracy. Mathematician or not, your probability calculations are wrong. Provably so. As for target prices, just staring at them is quite a futile exercise. The target price is based on the scenario presented in the analysis. Have you even read it? An investor should not primarily look at whether they agree with the target price, but whether they agree with the scenario. If not, then you might as well forget the target price. You can certainly come up with a scenario for any ticker (lappu) where the stock’s value is, for example, ten times less or ten times more than the analyst’s target price. How likely the realization of each scenario is, is another matter. An acquaintance of mine was recently putting together a price guide for collectibles and was complaining about how all sorts of crackpots were calling and ranting, “your price estimate is wrong, I paid this much myself.” At some point, he probably told someone that if you have a pen, you can write the price you think is right on that page, I won’t mind.

Well, yeah. What if you yourself were diagnosed with r/r MDS and had your insurance in order. Would you really wait for long without Bex?

And when taking into account the latest deals involving single-indication companies in Phase I/II development and the acquisitions that have already been completed, my estimate is on the conservative side. In fact, I am only talking about royalties there.

Well, Bex selling more than double compared to the top drug Keytruda in 3-5 years. Impossible even if Merck bought Bex tomorrow and started 10 phase 3 trials ASAP.

This is a quite sensitive topic for Inderes, easily flagged or otherwise removed, but these matters must be allowed to be brought to light within the framework of Finnish law. I am not blaming anyone, but I am issuing a challenge. Antti, have you considered that if Bex were suitable for Faron’s estimated 20-30% of all cancers, it would mean annual sales of 60-90 billion euros? Assuming 20% royalties, that would be 12-18 billion annually; then a 30% market share of that would be 3.6–5.4 billion every year, and applying a success probability of 10% (pulled out of a hat) means 360–540 million every year. Applying the Hex average P/E of 17 would then mean an average company valuation of approximately 7.65 billion, which, with the current share count including a possible rights issue, is €38.75 per share. I am a mathematician; tell me where our 50x difference in vision lies, thank you. My target price with the aforementioned calculations is not for 12 months, but for 3–5 years out.

Partnering with Mid-Pharma for HR MDS would be an excellent move right now. The problem has likely been that Big Pharma is more interested in solid tumors, for which Faron doesn’t have sufficient evidence yet. Partnering with a Mid-Pharma would also solve the issue where Big Pharma isn’t valuing the solid tumor side properly yet, while Faron doesn’t want to give up its rights for cheap. A win-win, I’d say.

These are really exciting times. Will there be a share issue or not, will a potential partnership with new Phase II/III trial plans happen or not. Otherwise, what are your thoughts on the big picture—does it even make sense to partner with a Mid-Pharma for HR MDS?

Faron Pharmaceuticals

Faron Pharmaceuticals is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company whose three drug candidates relate to the modulation of immune system or inflammatory response. Faron is a very high-risk ...

<p>Faron Pharmaceuticals is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company whose three drug candidates relate to the modulation of immune system or inflammatory response. Faron is a very high-risk investment as drug development requires frontloaded investments in research, while the success of commercialization is very uncertain. If the drug candidates enter the market, the invested capital can be multiplied. However, failure of drug development is frequent and, in that case, the invested capital may be partially or totally lost. We believe the share provides sufficient expected return to counterbalance the high risk. The share is suitable for a long-term investor that tolerates high risk as part of a well-diversified portfolio. A person investing in Faron must also be prepared for share issues.</p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	0.0	0.0	0.0
growth-%
EBIT (adj.)	-21.1	-22.0	-0.8
EBIT-% (adj.)	-527,700.0 %	-550,000.0 %	-19,500.0 %
EPS (adj.)	-0.40	-0.40	-0.02
Dividend	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)	neg.	neg.	neg.
EV/EBITDA	neg.	neg.	neg.

Risky investment with huge potential

Key Estimate Figures2022-08-08

Forum discussions