Scanfil Q4'25 preview: Good news flow neutralized valuation rapidly

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/1/2026 at 10:51 pm EET.

We revise the target price of Scanfil to EUR 11.00 (was EUR 10.50) but lower our recommendation to Reduce (was Accumulate). Scanfil's guidance for 2026 was in line with expectations, which, together with MB's strong 2025 figures, slightly reduced the risk level associated with the share in our view. However, we did not make any changes to our Scanfil estimates beyond a marginal positive refinement at this stage. The approximately 15% increase in the share price since our December update has slightly raised the valuation of the share (2026e: P/E 14x), which we believe neutralizes the expected return within a one-year timeframe. In our view, Scanfil still offers an attractive investment story of profitable growth in the longer term. 

News flow has been positive recently

Since the start of this year, Scanfil has announced the completion of the MB acquisition, MB's strong and better-than-expected growth and earnings growth last year, guidance for the current year, and investments to expand the Suzhou plant. We have commented on the news previously here, here, and here.

The most significant news, especially for the near future, was the 2026 guidance announced early, in which Scanfil indicated that its revenue for the current year would be 940–1,060 MEUR and its adjusted EBIT would be 64–78 MEUR. Our estimates were very close to the midpoints of these ranges. The ranges still appear wide, probably due to uncertainties related to external factors, but, in our view, the expected guidance and MB's strong development have slightly reduced the risk levels associated with the earnings improvements we predict for the coming years. We reduced our required return on the stock slightly. However, the actual changes in forecasts remained at the level of marginal, positive fine-tuning. In our cash flow forecasts, we increased our estimates for the additional purchase price of the MB transaction and also brought them forward partially due to the unit's stronger-than-expected development in 2025.

We expect organic growth to have continued in Q4

Scanfil will publish its Q4 report on Friday, February 20. We expect Scanfil's revenue to have increased by 5% to 223 MEUR in Q4 and its adjusted EBIT to have increased by 11% to 16.3 MEUR. As far as we understand, market expectations are roughly at the same level. The growth is almost entirely organic because the ADCO acquisition was only completed in mid-December. According to our estimates, growth has been driven by a slight market upturn and the projects the company has won in recent years. We also expect growth to have a slightly positive effect on profitability, reflecting industry logic. Our dividend forecast is two cents higher than last year, at EUR 0.26 per share, which should keep Scanfil firmly among the ranks of European dividend aristocrats (payout ratio of approximately 40% of last year's forecasted earnings).

Share price increases ate into short-term upside in our books

Based on our estimates for 2026 and 2027, Scanfil's adjusted P/E ratios are 14x and 13x, while the corresponding EV/EBITA ratios are 12x and 10x. The current year's multiples are within the ranges we have approved for the company, so we believe the valuation picture has stabilized after the approximately 15% increase in the share price since our December update. Correspondingly, the expected annual return, consisting of earnings growth, downside in multiples (Q3’25 LTM P/E 18x), and a dividend yield of just over 3%, will roughly align with the required return on an annual basis. The upside in relation to the value of our DCF model has also been exhausted. Relatively, Scanfil is slightly undervalued compared to its peer group of global and Nordic contract manufacturers. However, we believe that the peer group's valuation is elevated, so we do not think the relative valuation is sufficient to alter the neutral overall picture indicated by other methods. In the long term, we believe that Scanfil offers an attractive investment story in terms of profitable growth. That said, we believe that any additional share purchases would also require slightly better short-term expected return than is currently available.