contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


starbreeze-lower-valuation-improves-risk-reward-ratio-ahead-payday-3-release

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Starbreeze operates in the gaming industry and focuses on the development, publishing and distribution of computer games and interactive entertainment. The company's portfolio includes both its own games and collaborations with other game developers. The business is aimed at gamers and distributors globally, with the largest operations in Europe. Starbreeze was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Hi, Unfortunately, there will be no CEO interview following the Q4 report here. Let’s hope for an interview for Q1

Hi, Kommer det någon intervju med VDn nu efter rapporten förra veckan?

Brilliant performance by management and proof that the strategy works, if the goal is to drive the company into bankruptcy. Half of the cash was burned in a year, and at this rate, this was likely the final Q4 report.  Cash and cash equivalents amounted to SEK 102.6 million (191.9). The efficiency measures aren’t showing up in the results at all, and it begs the question: why does the company still have 143 employees? At this rate, it’s only a matter of time before the number of employees is 0.

Here is the company report on Starbreeze from Christoffer and Atte following Q4. Starbreeze reported Q4 revenue significantly weaker than our expectations, and the shortfall was primarily due to particularly weak PAYDAY 3 (“PD3”) revenue. Profitability also fell significantly short of our forecasts, reflecting not only lower revenue but also a cost structure that is adjusting more slowly than expected. Although the Skills 2.0 release was a significant milestone, its minimal impact on player activity and revenue reinforces our view that fundamental engagement challenges remain unresolved. With visibility into work-for-hire now even more limited following management’s cautious commentary and the termination of the KRAFTON partnership, we believe the path to positive cash flow in 2026 has become increasingly uncertain. As Starbreeze operates as a single-IP studio with growing execution pressures, we believe it still has much to prove before a stronger scenario can be priced in with confidence. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and lower our target price to SEK 0.09 (from SEK 0.14).                   Inderes              Starbreeze Q4'25: Polku eteenpäin on kaventunut - Inderes    Starbreeze raportoi Q4-liikevaihdon jääneen selvästi odotuksistamme, ja alijäämä johtui erityisesti heikosta PAYDAY 3 (”PD3”) -tuotosta.

Christoffer Jennel has written a quick comment on Starbreeze’s Q4 results.  Starbreeze reported Q4 revenue clearly below our expectations, and the miss was mainly due to weaker revenue from PAYDAY 3. Profitability also fell clearly short of our forecasts, reflecting lower revenue and overall higher costs. In our view, the company’s weak result highlights ongoing challenges in PAYDAY 3 player engagement and raises questions about the achievability of the 2026 positive cash flow target. We expect to make downward revisions to our forecasts following the report.                   Inderes              Starbreeze Q4’25 -pikakommentti: Lukemat kauttaaltaan odotuksia matalammat -...    Starbreeze raportoi Q4-liikevaihdon jääneen selvästi odotuksistamme, ja alijäämä johtui pääasiassa heikommasta PAYDAY 3:n tuotosta.

Christoffer has written a preview as Starbreeze reports its Q4 results on Thursday, Feb 19.  We expect the report to show moderate year-on-year revenue growth due to the quarter’s limited content offering and low player activity. While the termination of Project Baxter has streamlined the cost structure, which is expected to improve profitability, we believe the investment case remains heavily dependent on the company’s ability to revitalize player engagement and secure new work-for-hire projects. In the report and webcast, we are looking for comments on potential revenue drivers and the outlook for improved monetization, as well as progress toward positive cash flow in 2026.                   Inderes              Starbreeze Q4'25 -ennakko: Painopisteenä monetisoinnin käynnistimet...    Odotamme raportin osoittavan liikevaihdon vuositason kasvun maltillistuneen johtuen vuosineljänneksen rajallisesta sisällöntuotannosta ja vähäisestä pelaaja-aktiivisuudesta.

Christoffer and Atte have released a new company report on Starbreeze following the Q3 results.  Starbreeze reported Q3 revenue in line with expectations, but adjusted operating profit fell short of expectations primarily due to higher depreciation and amortization. PAYDAY 3 revenue was particularly low relative to our forecasts, but this was offset by the renewed strength of PAYDAY 2 following the introduction of a subscription model. As we understand it, monthly content updates for PD3 will begin from December onwards, and the company is offering shorter, continuous content plans instead of annual plans. However, visibility for new work-for-hire projects remains limited, and as the KRAFTON partnership nears completion, we have lowered our revenue assumptions due to timing effects. This, combined with changes in the expected revenue structure and slightly higher depreciation/amortization, led to downward revisions in our forecasts. Due to PD3’s continued low player activity, we believe the company has a lot to prove before a stronger scenario can be confidently priced in. Despite the low absolute valuation, the lack of clear short-term drivers keeps us on the sidelines. We reiterate our Reduce recommendation and lower our target price to SEK 0.14 (was SEK 0.15).                   Inderes              Starbreeze Q3'25: Näkymää on edelleen vaikea arvioida - Inderes    Starbreeze raportoi odotusten mukaisen Q3-liikevaihdon, mutta oikaistu liikevoitto jäi odotuksista

Starbreeze

With the release date of PAYDAY 3 nearing, our confidence in the game’s success remains. We are particularly encouraged by the positive feedback the game has received and the positive indicators related to the game released by Starbreeze. The biggest question mark surrounding Starbreeze is the medium to long-term future of the company and what level of confidence to assign to any projections regarding the games after PAYDAY 3. However, with the recent decline in share price, we believe the risk-reward ratio has returned to being modestly positive.

<p>With the release date of PAYDAY 3 nearing, our confidence in the game’s success remains. We are particularly encouraged by the positive feedback the game has received and the positive indicators related to the game released by Starbreeze. The biggest question mark surrounding Starbreeze is the medium to long-term future of the company and what level of confidence to assign to any projections regarding the games after PAYDAY 3. However, with the recent decline in share price, we believe the risk-reward ratio has returned to being modestly positive.</p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	127.6	679.0	373.4
growth-%	1.5 %	432.1 %	-45.0 %
EBIT (adj.)	6.7	433.9	79.5
EBIT-% (adj.)	5.3 %	63.9 %	21.3 %
EPS (adj.)	-0.08	0.30	0.05
Dividend	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)	neg.	0.3	1.6
EV/EBITDA	18.1	neg.	neg.

Starbreeze: Lower valuation improves risk-reward ratio ahead of PAYDAY 3 release

Key Estimate Figures2023-09-12

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