Taaleri Q4'25 preview: Important steps taken in the strategy

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/3/2026 at 7:39 pm EET.

Taaleri will publish its Q4 results on Wednesday at 08.00 am EET. We expect moderate earnings from the company, particularly driven by strong performances from Garantia and Renewable Energy. The company has taken significant steps in implementing its strategy during Q4, and the progress of the strategy is clearly more important than the Q4 figures. We have made some estimate revisions ahead of the Q4 report, but they do not affect our investment view. We reiterate our EUR 8.5 target price and Accumulate recommendation.

Small estimate revisions ahead of the report

We have made many small estimate changes ahead of the Q4 report. The final close of the SolarWind3 fund was larger than we estimated, which has a positive impact on our estimates. Garantia's investment portfolio has also performed better than expected in Q4, according to our calculations. We have completely removed performance fees related to old wind funds from our 2026 estimates. The wind power market situation in Finland has remained very challenging, and we even see a risk in the current situation that Taaleri might have to write down a portion of the performance fees of around 14 MEUR it has previously recognized. Overall, the estimate revisions for the coming years are only a few percent.

SolarWind 3's catch-up fees support revenue

Taaleri's revenue generally gives a rather poor picture of the development of the company, as most of the quarterly fluctuating investment income is also reflected in revenue. We recommend focusing on the development of the individual segments. At the Group level, we expect Taaleri to report revenue of 14.9 MEUR (Q4'24: 20.7 MEUR). Recurring fees will increase by around 5% due to Renewable Energy's catch-up fees. We believe no significant one-off income occurred during the review period, and the result relies on recurring fees and Garantia's investment income.

Garantia will deliver an excellent result in Q3, accounting for the majority of the 6 MEUR EBIT we estimate for Taaleri. Taaleri's goal is to distribute at least 50% of its earnings as dividends, but the emphasis in capital allocation is clearly on growth investments. We estimate the dividend to be EUR 0.39, representing approximately 60% of earnings.

Operationally good quarter

In terms of segments, Renewable Energy generates a very good margin (Q4'25e: 42%), as the SolarWind3 fund has elevated the company's profitability to the next level. In other private equity funds, we expect marginal growth due to the increased investment rate of Keva's real estate mandate, but the margin remains weak due to the ramp-up phase.

We expect Garantia's insurance revenue to have continued to grow slightly due to the cautious recovery of the housing market and the company's own actions. We estimate the underwriting result to be as strong as usual, and in addition, Garantia's earnings will be supported by the strong performance of its investment portfolio. Overall, Garantia continues its strong performance.

Strategy execution was the most important thing during the review period

Taaleri's strategy implementation has taken important steps forward during Q4. In December, the company made an investment of around 5 MEUR in Nordic Ren-Gas, which was the first private equity investment from its own balance sheet under the strategy updated in the fall. Garantia, in turn, has taken its first concrete step in the international markets. We expect Taaleri to once again provide quite detailed segment-specific outlooks for 2026 in connection with the report. Our key interests in the outlook are Garantia's growth, capital raising in Other Private Equity Funds, and the ramp-up of the Joensuu biochar plant. Overall, the outlook and strategy execution are the main focus of the report.