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Research

Valuation dependent on PAYDAY 3 recovery

By Inderes
Starbreeze
Download report (PDF)

PAYDAY 3’s initial sales exceeded our and the company’s expectations. Since then, however, the player count has decreased drastically, and undoubtedly, so have the game’s sales, upon which Starbreeze’s valuation rests. To combat the declining player count, Starbreeze announced a free update containing, among other things, two new heists. If the update and future updates (paid and free) successfully entice players to return, Starbreeze’s current valuation is undoubtedly very low. If, on the other hand, the game does not recover from the troubled start, the company’s prospects are severely dented. We believe PAYDAY 3 should not yet be counted out, and given the current low valuation, we assess the risk-reward ratio as modestly positive.

Starbreeze operates in the gaming industry and focuses on the development, publishing and distribution of computer games and interactive entertainment. The company's portfolio includes both its own games and collaborations with other game developers. The business is aimed at gamers and distributors globally, with the largest operations in Europe. Starbreeze was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures2023-11-17

202223e24e
Revenue127.6627.9260.3
growth-%1.5 %392.1 %-58.5 %
EBIT (adj.)6.7256.8-26.3
EBIT-% (adj.)5.3 %40.9 %-10.1 %
EPS (adj.)-0.080.22-0.02
Dividend0.000.000.00
Dividend %
P/E (adj.)neg.0.5neg.
EV/EBITDA18.1neg.neg.

Forum discussions

Christoffer and Atte have prepared a new company report on Starbreeze after the Q3 results. \nStarbreeze reported Q3 revenue in line with expectations...
11/12/2025, 8:50 AM
by Sijoittaja-alokas
3
Hi! Our analyst Christoffer interviewed Starbreeze’s CEO today in connection with their Q3 report. Check it out here, the interview is in English...
11/11/2025, 3:05 PM
by Jesper Hagman
5
There isn’t much to share in the coffers; even those small amounts go purely into running the bureaucracy and finding a party that would then...
11/11/2025, 12:40 PM
by Arvuuttaja
0
Optimization would require expertise, and most of the Payday 2 developers left the company even before PD3’s release. Payday 3 and Baxter paint...
11/11/2025, 12:22 PM
by Trivial
1
And there are no changes in player data for Payday 3, so the promising start at the beginning of the year sharply turned back to its lowest ...
11/11/2025, 11:51 AM
by Arvuuttaja
1
Here are Jenneli’s quick comments on Starbreeze’s Q3 results. Starbreeze reported Q3 revenue in line with expectations, but adjusted profitability...
11/11/2025, 10:50 AM
by Sijoittaja-alokas
1
@christoffer.jennel has given his preliminary comments as Starbreeze reports its Q3 results next week on Tuesday. *The quarter is dominated ...
11/7/2025, 8:25 AM
by Sijoittaja-alokas
2
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