contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
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            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
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            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Admicom operates in the IT sector. The company develops cloud-based services that mainly concern administration, accounting, payroll and project management. In addition to its main business, it offers training and customer support. Its customers are small and medium-sized corporate customers, with the largest operations in construction and industry. The head office is located in Jyväskylä.

Exactly, the company management has the best vantage point. I don’t know who is supposed to believe the story if even management doesn’t.

The non-existent ownership by management is one of the few, but clearly the biggest red flag for me in Admicom. This makes me a bit cautious about the stock as well. There is ONE person in the leadership team who has any ownership to speak of. Occasionally, you hear excuses that they don’t dare to buy due to insider information, but the CEO and CFO still opened positions in December. Unfortunately, the purchases were negligible in size. As I understand it, these were actual purchases rather than compensation, though I might be wrong. Thus, there seem to be no excuses for the lack of ownership, and this makes the entire leadership team look like traditional Finnish “nine-to-five” salaried management. Fewer AI info sessions and more reaching into their pockets, please!

Apparently, even management considers the threat of disruption significant since they have no appetite for the stock even at these levels; quite something. I bet the press conference will be a real fanfare of belly flops.

Thanks for the great post. It’s just as you stated—valuation multiples will immediately look like something else entirely if the forecasts are not met. Perhaps the market doesn’t believe in these forecasts right now, and my own bets are on the side that they will be reached. I suppose that’s what it’s all about in the big picture if you want to generate returns; taking a view against the consensus.

The adjusted operating profit in our reports is effectively EBITA, as it has been adjusted for goodwill amortization from acquisitions, which the company records in accordance with FAS accounting.

Operating profit growth is baked into that 2026 forecast. You can load as much upside into forecasts as you want. I could make Kesko’s '26e EV/EBIT look like 12 too if I wanted. And the point isn’t to claim that the forecasts are wrong, but that the actual outcome can eventually be different, and often is. The only certainty is the past, and looking at the 2025 adjusted operating profit, Admicom reported: “Adjusted operating profit (EBIT) 3) was EUR 7.7 million (8.6), or 20.3% of net sales (24.1%).” Inderes expects operating profit to rise, unlike the previous year, which saw a decline. Unadjusted operating profit growth from 7.6→8.8 would be about 16% growth, and if this materializes → the EV/EBIT at today’s enterprise value would be 157.9/8.8=17.9, and if and when Admicom achieves the forecast result in 2026, the EV/EBIT at the current share price would be 16.9 by the end of the year, which is shown in the forecast. At least, that’s how I interpret it myself. The 2026 figures already include the full-year earnings forecast where EV decreases and EBIT increases. Apparently Inderes adjusts the figures a bit more than Admicom itself, as Admicom’s ‘25 adj. operating profit of 7.7 and Inderes’ 12 differ quite a bit. Both certainly have their own good reasons… Compared to Kesko, it’s pretty clear that Kesko will still be around in 20 years. I can imagine a situation where Admicom might not achieve such a long lifespan. Kesko deserves higher multiples due to lower risk than Admicom, but of course, higher growth potential can also be priced into Admicom.

In the recent Lemonsoft update, I commented on how I don’t currently see the threat of AI as very high from the perspective of SME ERP providers. In my view, the same points apply fully to Admicom, whose valuation has also been beaten down to a historically low level.

Admicom

In the Value Creators concept, we highlight companies that have created substantial shareholder value. In this report we focus on Admicom, a Finnish a construction software provider operating with a SaaS model.


Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/14/2024 at 3:07 pm EEST.
In the Value Creators concept, we highlight companies that have created substantial shareholder value. The reports do not include forecasts; they are based solely on historical data and key figures derived from it.
We evaluate companies based on the following indicators: &#xa0;
<ul>
<li>Revenue development</li>
<li>Operating profit development and profitability (%)</li>
<li>Return on capital (%)</li>
<li>Cash flow generated from operations</li>
<li>Share price development and historical valuations &#xa0;</li>
<li>Data is primarily sourced from Bloomberg</li>
</ul>
We look at the long-term development and all figures are presented with the time series 2014-2023. The reports do not constitute investment recommendations.
In this report we focus on Admicom, a Finnish a construction software provider operating with a SaaS model. Admicom&apos;s revenue has grown at a CAGR of 29% over the last ten years. Strong growth reflects successful commercialization of SaaS ERP system designed for scalability to construction SMEs. Admicom&apos;s EBIT has grown faster than revenue as profitability has scaled with growth.

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	34.3	35.4	37.7
growth-%	8.6 %	3.2 %	6.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	12.7	12.2	13.3
EBIT-% (adj.)	36.9 %	34.3 %	35.1 %
EPS (adj.)	2.04	1.94	2.18
Dividend	0.70	0.65	0.75
Dividend %	1.6 %	2.0 %	2.3 %
P/E (adj.)	21.2	16.9	15.0
EV/EBITDA	16.4	12.3	10.9

Value Creators: Admicom

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