Following WindowMaster's revised guidance, we have updated our investment case. Our updated investment case covers the key investment reasons, risks, and valuation perspective relative to peers exposed to the construction and materials, as well as the ventilations and building tech sector.

WindowMaster now guides for 2026 revenue of DKK 285-305m and EBITDA of DKK 30-40m, corresponding to revenue growth of 6-13% and an EBITDA margin of 11-13%. The previous guidance was DKK 290-310m in revenue and DKK 45-55m in EBITDA, equivalent to 8-15% growth and a 16-17% margin. Despite the adjustment, the new EBITDA guidance still implies growth of 7-43% compared to 2025.

There are indications that the downgrade is macro-driven rather than structural. Weather conditions in Europe in Q1 2026 delayed the start-up of building activity, particularly in Germany, the UK, and within Fall Protection, which WindowMaster does not expect to recuperate during 2026, as part of the lost revenue is moved into 2027. Importantly, the company states that order intake remains on target and continues to show growth on a 12-month rolling basis, driven by the Buildings business area, which fully compensates for the weaker order trend in the Products area. The gross margin remains strong due to the business area mix, and management still flags upside from the new louvre-system products with a fast-turnover opportunity pipeline.

The downgrade nevertheless illustrates a central point in the investment case: WindowMaster's high operational gearing works both ways. A ~2% reduction to the revenue midpoint translates into a ~30% reduction in EBITDA at the midpoint (from DKK 50m to DKK 35m). This is the same dynamic that drove EBITDA up 93% on 24% revenue growth in 2024, and the same dynamic that underpinned the original 2026 guidance, that at time pointed to a near-doubling of EBITDA.

Our updated investment case covers the key investment reasons, risks, and valuation perspective relative to peers exposed to the construction and materials, as well as the ventilations and building tech sector.

The key investment reasons center on structural tailwinds from EU green building regulation (the Green Deal and REPowerEU), which should make WindowMaster less cyclical than other building-related companies over time, high operational gearing that enables significant earnings leverage if topline returns to its structural path, strong cash generation with approximately 16% FCF yield in 2025 and rising distribution potential, and the ambition to uplist from Nasdaq First North to the Nasdaq Main Market, which may improve share liquidity.

The key risks have shifted in emphasis following the guidance adjustment. Macro is now more prominent: rising interest rates and inflation on building materials could put further pressure on the market and delay the timing of recovery, as illustrated by the Q1 2026 slowdown. High operational gearing remains a risk that amplifies the impact of any revenue miss. Growth also depends on continued political commitment to green building regulations, and despite the partial shielding from renovation exposure and recurring service revenue, the company remains tied to overall building activity.

From a valuation perspective, the share has reacted significantly to the guidance adjustment, with the share price down 15.3% YTD and 32.3% over the past 12 months. Despite lower earnings expected, WindowMaster trades at a meaningful discount to peers at 5.1x EV/EBITDA (2026E midpoint of new guidance) versus an all-peer median of 7.8x, and 0.6x EV/Sales versus 1.1x. Against the Ventilation and Building Tech cluster, which arguably shares the closest exposure to smarter, greener buildings, the gap is even wider at a median of 8.2x EV/EBITDA. Versus the Construction & Materials cluster at 7.0x, the gap narrows but remains meaningful.

Part of the discount can be explained by WindowMaster's small size and low share liquidity, but the growth- and margin profile makes the gap harder to justify on fundamentals: the EBITDA CAGR of 22.0% (2023-2026E) is significantly above the peer median of 4.6%, and the revenue CAGR of 7.4% is well above the peer median of 0.6%, with broadly similar margin levels.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from WindowMaster for a Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 15:00, 19/05-2026