Arctic Paper: Still cold, but the ice is cracking - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Q1e Paper EBIT of ~PLN -15m
* Markets remain challenging, but pulp winds are turning
* Fair value range of SEK 15-50
Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN -15m
We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN -15m, up from ~PLN -27m in Q4’25. Prices are expected to remain broadly in line q-o-q, while seasonally higher volumes should provide some support. However, margins remain under pressure from weak demand, Asian competition, and increasingly higher pulp prices. Looking ahead, the announced paper price increases of +8-10% are expected to take effect from Q2, and we therefore forecast a recovery in Paper EBIT to ~PLN 25m in Q2e. For FY’26e, we make limited changes to our estimates, with Paper EBITDA of ~135m. The 2026e estimate revisions are related to Rottneros (pulp EBITDA).
Still challenging markets, but pulp winds are turning
Pulpwood prices are down ~25% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market, which should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 4-6% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand, utilisation rates remain at only ~75%, implying that ~3mt (~15%) of additional cuts are needed to reach historical averages. The pulp market has faced short-term headwinds, but key drivers are now moving in the right direction. Hardwood prices are up ~22% following Suzano’s several hikes (+30%). While Rottneros' exposure is mainly to softwood and CTMP, which have lagged hardwood, these increases signal improving pulp price dynamics and could support pricing in 2026.
Fair value range of SEK 15-50
The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.40x, which is ~45% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 15-50.
* Markets remain challenging, but pulp winds are turning
* Fair value range of SEK 15-50
Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN -15m
We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN -15m, up from ~PLN -27m in Q4’25. Prices are expected to remain broadly in line q-o-q, while seasonally higher volumes should provide some support. However, margins remain under pressure from weak demand, Asian competition, and increasingly higher pulp prices. Looking ahead, the announced paper price increases of +8-10% are expected to take effect from Q2, and we therefore forecast a recovery in Paper EBIT to ~PLN 25m in Q2e. For FY’26e, we make limited changes to our estimates, with Paper EBITDA of ~135m. The 2026e estimate revisions are related to Rottneros (pulp EBITDA).
Still challenging markets, but pulp winds are turning
Pulpwood prices are down ~25% across Scandinavia as high inventories and low demand pressure the market, which should provide some cost relief. Paper markets are helped by 4-6% supply cuts in '25-'26e, but with (too) low demand, utilisation rates remain at only ~75%, implying that ~3mt (~15%) of additional cuts are needed to reach historical averages. The pulp market has faced short-term headwinds, but key drivers are now moving in the right direction. Hardwood prices are up ~22% following Suzano’s several hikes (+30%). While Rottneros' exposure is mainly to softwood and CTMP, which have lagged hardwood, these increases signal improving pulp price dynamics and could support pricing in 2026.
Fair value range of SEK 15-50
The company is trading at an EV/CE multiple of ~0.40x, which is ~45% below its historical average. We have applied three valuation methodologies and arrive at a fair value range of SEK 15-50.