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Third party research

BTS Group - North America behind Q4 miss - ABG

BTS Group

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* Sales -1% vs cons, adj. EBITA -14%, but North America guided to grow in Q1e
* 2026 guidance: "Better EBITA than in 2025" (cons +12%) but base will come down
* Estimates likely cut 5-10%, share to underperform somewhat


Q4 details

Sales SEK 710m (-1% vs ABG 718m, -1% vs cons 718m), adj. EBITA 96m (-13% vs ABG 111m, -14% vs cons 112m), adj. EBITA margin 12.1% (ABG 15.4%, cons 15.6%). Adj. EBITA -29% y-o-y (ABG -18%, cons -17%). Organic growth -5% (ABG -2%, cons -2%). DPS SEK 4.40 (24% vs ABG 3.55, -2% vs cons 4.49).


North America behind miss in Q4

Still challenging in North America (EBITA -37% vs cons) while Ok performance in Europe and Other markets. The North American turnaround is progressing well however. Guides for "higher EBITA 2026 vs 2025" on group level as expected (cons +12%). Q-o-q EBITA decline in North America marks the end in Q4 and will grow organically and improve profit y-o-y already in Q1 given actions taken, according to BTS. AI innovation across the firm is benefitting BTS in three ways: 1) a more competitive portfolio with bookings from the AI bot technology at USD 5m in 2025 (5x vs 2024), 2) new services spanning AI adoption and workflow with AI related services of USD 14m in 2025 (+690% vs 2024), and 3) internal simplifications with another SEK 24m cost reductions realised in 2026. All of these drivers are behind the outlook guidance to drive EBITA growth again.


Estimates down 5-10%

We expect consensus to reduce 2026 EBITA by 5-10% due to the Q4 miss and lower base although guidance was as expected, and share should underperform similarly today, although it has traded weak into numbers (-28% YTD).
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