* BTS wins new AI enablement projects at scale...
* ...and improves internal efficiency: adj. EBITA +8-9%
* 20% EBITA growth in 2027e yields 11.2x EV/EBITA
A step in the right direction
It is becoming clearer that BTS is seeing increased demand from AI-related projects, while at the same time using AI to improve its own internal efficiencies. We believe that BTS is also winning large enterprise customers outside the tech and AI sectors, and now runs projects enabling AI on global scale for customers. This increases the market potential. BTS has also shared that, according to Future Market Insights, the 'AI consulting market' is expected to grow at a 23% CAGR 2026-36. The AI roll-out is dependent on increased usage among consumers and enterprises, and BTS seems well positioned to help large organisations incorporate AI into their day-to-day workflows. Internal use of AI also improves productivity at BTS, with sales/employee up 26% y-o-y in Q3 while total opex grew 9% y-o-y, driving margins higher. The announced AI deal in October will contribute ~8% to Q4 organic growth, where we estimate 15% (vs. 13% in Q3) and further 9% in 2027e.
Positive estimate changes
Due to the better-than-expected Q3 report and stronger organic growth figures, we raise our sales estimates by 2-5% in 2026-28e, while improved efficiency (higher sales/employee and lower cost growth) results in 8-9% higher EBITA estimates. We estimate a 2028e EBITA margin of 14.0% (compared to the all-time high of 15.0% in the pandemic-boosted 2021), while BTS is now commenting on progress towards its long-term target of 17% for the first time in several years. This could drive further positive estimate revisions, but we are careful not to extrapolate that today.
Strong earnings growth ahead
We estimate 20% EBITA growth in 2027, and as such we expect a positive outlook for 2027 at the Q4 report. On our revised estimates, the share is trading at 13.9x EV/EBITA 2026e and 11.2x 2027e.