Careium: Entering a growth-focused period - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Q1e: 10% organic sales growth, 4% adj. EBITA margin
* We cut our EBITA estimates by 7-2%
* Trading at 9x '26e EV/EBITA
Q1e: strong organic growth, but soft margins
We expect Q1 to be strong in terms of organic growth, as Careium will no longer face comps that include financial lease agreements. We reiterate our view that Q1e will be soft on earnings, as margins will be highly affected by investments in organic growth and negative sales mix. We expect Q1 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 216m and SEK 9m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 10% and a margin of 4.1%, compared to 8.4% Q1'25. In the UK & Ireland, we expect 2% organic growth, which is offset by an FX effect of -11%. We keep in mind that service sales in this segment were positively affected by a one-time revenue recognition in Q1'25, therefore presenting tough comps. The UK one-off also had a positive effect on the gross margin, and as such we expect a GM of 42.5%, which is an arguably strong GM in a broader context, but down 2pp y-o-y.
Growth investments a necessary evil
We have revised our estimates and lower '26e-'28e sales by 2%, driven by a decrease in the '26e organic growth rate of 1.3pp and an updated FX drag of an additional 1.1pp. Due to the scalable nature of Careium's business, this spills over into lowered adj. EBITA of 7-2% in '26e-'28e. We slightly lower the '26e adj. EBITA margin by 0.4pp, which coupled with FX headwinds contributes to the lowered earnings estimates. We believe that keeping the opex base slightly elevated is a regrettable necessity to enable growth, and view this phase as positive from a LT perspective.
Trading at 9x NTM EBITA
On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at '26e-'28e multiples of 9x-6x EV/EBITA and 10x-7x P/E, where we highlight '26e-'28e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 23%, respectively. For context, Careium has historically traded at an average of 8x NTM EV/EBITA and 11x NTM P/E.
* We cut our EBITA estimates by 7-2%
* Trading at 9x '26e EV/EBITA
Q1e: strong organic growth, but soft margins
We expect Q1 to be strong in terms of organic growth, as Careium will no longer face comps that include financial lease agreements. We reiterate our view that Q1e will be soft on earnings, as margins will be highly affected by investments in organic growth and negative sales mix. We expect Q1 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 216m and SEK 9m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of 10% and a margin of 4.1%, compared to 8.4% Q1'25. In the UK & Ireland, we expect 2% organic growth, which is offset by an FX effect of -11%. We keep in mind that service sales in this segment were positively affected by a one-time revenue recognition in Q1'25, therefore presenting tough comps. The UK one-off also had a positive effect on the gross margin, and as such we expect a GM of 42.5%, which is an arguably strong GM in a broader context, but down 2pp y-o-y.
Growth investments a necessary evil
We have revised our estimates and lower '26e-'28e sales by 2%, driven by a decrease in the '26e organic growth rate of 1.3pp and an updated FX drag of an additional 1.1pp. Due to the scalable nature of Careium's business, this spills over into lowered adj. EBITA of 7-2% in '26e-'28e. We slightly lower the '26e adj. EBITA margin by 0.4pp, which coupled with FX headwinds contributes to the lowered earnings estimates. We believe that keeping the opex base slightly elevated is a regrettable necessity to enable growth, and view this phase as positive from a LT perspective.
Trading at 9x NTM EBITA
On our updated estimates, Careium is trading at '26e-'28e multiples of 9x-6x EV/EBITA and 10x-7x P/E, where we highlight '26e-'28e organic sales and adj. EBITA CAGRs of 8% and 23%, respectively. For context, Careium has historically traded at an average of 8x NTM EV/EBITA and 11x NTM P/E.