Clavister: The calm before the upswing - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Softer Q4 numbers due to postponed orders...
* ...but we raise EBITDA ~65% for '26e-'27e after recent defence order
* Avg. of ~13-11x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below peers
Softer Q4e due to market conditions and postponed orders
Clavister will report its Q4'25 on 12 February. We expect SEK 64m in sales, implying y-o-y growth of 8%, driven by solid underlying business in the civilian segment (although partly held back by a generally more cautious IT investment environment currently), which we expect to improve. As announced before, the defence business is affected by supplier issues, which we believe will continue near term. These are timing-related rather than driven by demand, leading to delays that we think should be realised at the beginning of H1'26. We expect SEK 8m in EBITDA, with 13% margins in Q4.
We raise EBITDA by ~65% for '26e-'27e
Looking ahead, for '26e-'27e we raise sales by ~30% and EBITDA by ~65% due to the recent ~SEK 280m order (link) from Norwegian defence. This means that '26e-'27e EBITDA increases from ~SEK 70m-95m to ~SEK 120m-150m.
Aiming for a profitable 2026Clavister has spent the most recent years addressing structural challenges, including a high cost base and financing costs. With operating costs now materially reduced and the EIB financing fully resolved, the company enters 2026 in a fundamentally different position. The defence business continues to build its order backlog (NTM planned deliveries of SEK 93m, from the Q3'25 report), which will rise with the recent Norwegian order. We believe this shift in mix, combined with improved cost discipline, will be a key driver of profitability in 2026. On our revised estimates, Clavister is trading at an average of 13-11x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, which is ~30% below its peers, and at an EV/EBIT of 13-10x for '26e-'27e.
* ...but we raise EBITDA ~65% for '26e-'27e after recent defence order
* Avg. of ~13-11x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, ~30% below peers
Softer Q4e due to market conditions and postponed orders
Clavister will report its Q4'25 on 12 February. We expect SEK 64m in sales, implying y-o-y growth of 8%, driven by solid underlying business in the civilian segment (although partly held back by a generally more cautious IT investment environment currently), which we expect to improve. As announced before, the defence business is affected by supplier issues, which we believe will continue near term. These are timing-related rather than driven by demand, leading to delays that we think should be realised at the beginning of H1'26. We expect SEK 8m in EBITDA, with 13% margins in Q4.
We raise EBITDA by ~65% for '26e-'27e
Looking ahead, for '26e-'27e we raise sales by ~30% and EBITDA by ~65% due to the recent ~SEK 280m order (link) from Norwegian defence. This means that '26e-'27e EBITDA increases from ~SEK 70m-95m to ~SEK 120m-150m.
Aiming for a profitable 2026Clavister has spent the most recent years addressing structural challenges, including a high cost base and financing costs. With operating costs now materially reduced and the EIB financing fully resolved, the company enters 2026 in a fundamentally different position. The defence business continues to build its order backlog (NTM planned deliveries of SEK 93m, from the Q3'25 report), which will rise with the recent Norwegian order. We believe this shift in mix, combined with improved cost discipline, will be a key driver of profitability in 2026. On our revised estimates, Clavister is trading at an average of 13-11x EV/EBITDA for '26e-'27e, which is ~30% below its peers, and at an EV/EBIT of 13-10x for '26e-'27e.