contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  createdAt
  changedAt
  isPremium
  authors {
    __typename
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    id
  }
  tags {
    name
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
    videoEmbedUrl(location: "inderes")
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
    videoEmbedUrl(location: "inderes")
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
      researchContentUrl
      researchContent {
        title
        lang
        pdfUrl
        relatedContent {
          __typename
          ...PublishingDetails
          ...Reactions
          id
        }
        content {
          title
          lang
          slug
          htmlBody
          publishedAt
          createdAt
          changedAt
          isOutdated
          isPremium
        }
      }
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

changedAt

Duell is an import company. The company's own and imported products are sold through a distribution network covering the European markets. Duell’s range of imported products includes equipment, accessories and spare parts for motorcycling, snowmobiling. boating, bicycling, ATVs/UTVs, mopeds and scooters. The company was founded in 1983 and its headquarters is located in Mustasaari, Finland.

I have written my views here several times already: the fact that an analyst cannot take balance sheet values or even seasonality into account in their analysis, but instead rambles about share issues and a tight balance sheet position, is unprofessionalism at its worst—for which Inderes is even being paid. Just a couple of months ago, you could buy Duell’s 30 million euro debt-free inventory from the market for 6 million euros; this has now risen to → 10.5 million euros, which is still next to nothing, especially if Duell returns to growth. If you listened to the analyst, you lost your money and sold your shares in a panic while the price was at rock bottom; now they are trying to fix it by raising the target price by +55% after the share price has already climbed. Regarding the language used, I could certainly write more constructively, so apologies for that. EDIT: I understand the use of the term “tight balance sheet position” in cases where a company is making significant losses and has far too much debt relative to its carrying capacity and valuation, causing the debt amount to grow as a result. None of this applies to Duell, which operates with an equity ratio of over 50%. Its capital is many times its market capitalization, and in general, there is significantly more wealth than debt, so one would think even an analyst would understand how to assign some value to this.  Of course, what do I know? I’m just shouting from the sidelines with a +40% return on Duell so far.

Inderes’ target price range is therefore €3 without the rights issue and €1.5 with the rights issue. If Inderes were as patient here as they are with Aiforia, then that €3 is still quite low  and of course, it’s just my own opinion that since Eezy has €42m in debt at the end of the year (forecast) and Duell only has €18m, I only dare to invest in the latter… I wonder if Duell should get back the same analyst that Eezy has now. They don’t go negative so easily with Kinnunen

Tommi’s target price adjustments are completely logical considering what has happened. Precisely because of that tight balance sheet position, the situation swings violently in one direction or another. Isn’t that the most notable characteristic of financial leverage? My own view has swung in the same way as Tommi’s. Before Q3, the assumption for Duell and others was rather that the market would remain subdued. Now, statistics in the Nordics show quite the opposite, so we can assume sales are still performing well. When the balance sheet position has been tight regarding covenants, good revenue already has a very positive impact as inventory converts into debt repayment, even if profitability remains sluggish. Duell is currently a fairly binary investment in terms of whether additional financing is needed or not, and recently, the development has been such that the probability of needing extra funding is decreasing, which in turn increases the company’s value. Furthermore, a target price is just an analyst’s best guess for the share price a year from now, and its starting point is always what the markets are willing to pay at the moment (valuation multiples). In any case, it’s better to focus on the content of the analysis rather than the target prices. I have also written here about Duell in one direction or another, but I’ve always justified my views in some way. Of course, I have been wrong many times.

I am not targeting this at any specific user, but there has certainly been some quite blatant pumping and dumping (vedätys) in this thread in both directions. I wish Duell and all other companies nothing but the best, of course. Calculating the correct valuation for Duell is certainly challenging, but fortunately, we will get more facts on the table in the next interim report.

In principle, it is of course a bit annoying to read an analysis that is based solely on a one-year target price. I assume most shareholders expect the earnings to normalize back to a 5% operating margin, at which point P/B=1 becomes a relevant option, meaning approximately 9 euros. That was also Inderes’ target price a year ago… The threat of a share issue was also mentioned by Sauli Vilén; it feels a bit like Finnish investors are quite cautious compared to, for example, the Swedes  Just over 20 years ago, stocks weren’t this cheap at P/B=0.2. When forest industry companies, construction companies, or Outokumpu made a 10% operating loss, the P/B went to a level of 0.5 at most, not below that.

Critique towards an analysis can probably be presented a bit more constructively, or do you disagree? This is, of course, just my own opinion and you are certainly allowed to disagree. As a daily user of this forum, I for one cannot accept this kind of language, where one seeks to imply their own excellence between the lines while simultaneously speaking condescendingly toward others. Clearly, you have a strong personal view that differs from the mainstream regarding Duell. I would hope that you could write here with a bit more respect for others. It is nice to read different perspectives with their supporting arguments, but if you wish to continue in this manner, then perhaps it is better for you to write your messages in your own private diary instead.

““Tight balance sheet position” still remains in the vocabulary… I’m waiting with great interest to see what fairy tales you come up with after the Q3 report.” @S_Nyyssonen, did you have any actual substance to offer as a counter-argument to the Inderes analysis?

Duell

Duell is set to report Q2 (Dec-Feb) on Thursday, April 9. We expect another soft quarter, reflecting continued market headwinds, weak seasonal demand, and ongoing challenges in France. Following...

Duell is set to report Q2 (Dec-Feb) on Thursday, April 9. We expect another soft quarter, reflecting continued market headwinds, weak seasonal demand, and ongoing challenges in France. Following the weak Q1, the need to catch up is evident, and the risk of a negative profit warning has risen.

Duell: Headwinds persist ahead of Q2 - Evli

Duell: Headwinds persist ahead of Q2 - Evli