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Third party research

Eolus: No big surprises in Q3 - ABG

Eolus

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* Q3 fairly in line, EBIT adj. SEK -69m (consensus -62m)* Savings program initiated, annual savings of ~SEK 60m* 15y PPA signed for Fågelås, Dållebo and Boarp (88 MW)Q3 fairly in line, savings program implementedEolus reported net sales of SEK 200m (vs. consensus 126m and 24m LY), driven mostly by revenue recognition in the US BESS project Pome (~90% completed at the end of Q3). EBIT adj. was SEK -69m (vs. consensus -62m), adjusted for the impact of U.S. tax law changes, which has affected the ability to use certain purchased wind power components. These components were therefore sold, resulting in a negative EBIT impact of SEK -18m in the quarter. Moreover, EBIT was negatively affected by SEK -26m due to changes in the expected project margin in Pome. Due to continued market uncertainty, the company has initiated a cost savings program with the aim to reduce costs by ~SEK 60m annually from '26 through efficiency improvements.Estimate changes and significant events in the quarterOn numbers alone '25e-'27e sales changes by 3-7% and EBIT adj. by SEK -7m. In July, Eolus and Dala Vind sold the jointly developed onshore wind project Fageråsen (238 MW) to OX2, for which Eolus received a payment of SEK 6.6m. Additional payments are expected once the buyer makes a final investment decision. The buyer's goal is for Fagersåsen to be fully operational in early '28. Furthermore, in September, Eolus and a counterparty entered into a 15-year PPA for a significant proportion of the output from the Fågelås, Dållebo and Boarp onshore wind projects, which we view positively. We think this will contribute to strengthened interest among buyers.ValuationThe share has returned -30% L3M (vs. OMXSPI flat), and is currently trading 3x-5x P/E '26e-'27e on our pre-report estimates.
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