* Q3e: Sales of SEK 1,178m, adj. EBIT of SEK 46m
* US demand backdrop remains robust
* Trading at 11-9x '26e-'27e P/E
Q3 expectations
Following a strong set of numbers in Q2, we look for continued positive operational development into Q3. We expect Ferronordic to deliver sales of SEK 1,178m, representing a normalisation vs. SEK 1,558m in Q2'26 (+11% y-o-y), with previous adverse FX effects turning into tailwinds q-o-q. The earnings comps are more demanding than in Q2, albeit not as challenging as in Q4. We forecast adj. EBIT of SEK 46m (+25% y-o-y) for a margin of 3.9%, in line with the H1 level. Data centers should drive incremental US demand for Rudd against an otherwise stable end-market backdrop. The quarter ended with a strong ISM reading of 54.5 in September (54.9 in Q3 vs. 53.3 in Q2). We are vigilant on the sharp upturn in diesel prices recently (+15% m-o-m in Sep, +68% y-o-y), which could have an adverse effect on Rudd's end-markets. We expect Germany to remain EBIT-positive in Q3, supported by Volvo and Renault truck registrations in Germany rising by 18% in the quarter. We also expect the gross margin to recover q-o-q on a normalising mix, with higher aftermarket share after truck deliveries deferred from Q1 landed in Q2. Additionally, the German truck toll mileage index saw an improving trend during Q3 (96.7), signalling higher truck utilisation activity in the country and implying a supportive backdrop for aftermarket sales.
Estimates raised on FX
Most of our estimate revisions come down to positive shifts in FX rates, with slight changes to our Q3 US margin assumptions. All in all, EBIT is raised 2%/3%/3% for '26e/'27e/'28e
Trading at 11-9x '26e-'27e P/E
The share is up 106% YTD, compared with +8% for OMXSGI. The valuation presently sits at 11-9x '26e-'27e P/E, which can be compared to our heavy equipment distributor peer group at 21-18x and our Nordic peers at 13-11x.