* Q3 sales SEK 38m (ABGSCe SEK 30m), incl. SEK 9m metal sales
* Positive EBIT of SEK 3.8m (ABGSCe SEK -9.7m)
* '26e EBIT up by SEK 20m on higher gross margins and lower opex
Q3 results
Q3 sales were SEK 38m (vs. ABGSCe SEK 30m, and 16.1m in Q3'25), driven by the HJWAVE IC500 (SEK 16.6m) and Coating Services of SEK 17.8m, including SEK 9m of recycled metal sales. The gross margin was 55% (vs. ABGSCe 30%), and EBIT was SEK 3.8m (vs. ABGSCe SEK -9.7m). Metal sales, which we do not adjust for, carried a margin of ~20%, adding ~SEK 2m. As well, management highlighted that net income was positive (also excluding metals).
Estimate changes and outlook
We raise ‘26e/’27e/’28e EBIT adj. by SEK 20m/9m/9m. For ‘26e, the increase reflects both the Q3 beat and a higher gross margin assumption for Q4, where we expect the LINDBERG IC500 to be recognised. This will lift the 2026e gross margin to 55% (from 39%), while lower personnel costs will add SEK 6m. For ‘27e-‘28e, the change mainly reflects lower opex, with slightly higher sales (+3%) and gross margin. With LINDBERG shipped in October, ‘26e looks largely de-risked, while ‘27e-‘28e depend on new orders. Note that the Romanian IC2000 covers one of our four ‘27e deliveries. We expect Impact to turn EBIT positive in ‘29e, although we note that this depends on machine sales picking up.
Markets moving, automotive lagging
Chinese demand seems to be picking up following the hydrogen pilot programme. In SOFC, management expects customers to purchase machines directly following qualification, given much larger volumes than in PEM, which would bring system revenue earlier. This will generate system revenue more quickly. Automotive remains slow, but radar antennas do not depend on car volume growth, and HJWAVE’s expansion plans, if successful, would require additional machines. Moreover, the search for an industrial partner continues with an advisor. Impact is trading at 2.4x ‘27e-‘28e EV/Sales (peers at 1.2x-1.0x).