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Third party research

Infrea: A quarter in the right direction - ABG

Infrea

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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* Sales -5%, adj. EBITA +25% vs. ABGSCe, 0% org. growth* '25e-'27e adj. EBITA estimates likely up 8-15%* Share to focus on the margin improvmentQ3 detailsInfrea delivered a solid report with sales flat y-o-y, but a high margin driven by paving services. Sales came in at SEK 531m (-5% vs. ABGSCe), 0% y-o-y of which +0% organic (ABGSCe +7%, +8% Q2'25), driven by paving services, partly offset by land & construction. Adj. EBITA grew SEK 12m y-o-y to SEK 34m (+25%, SEK +7m, vs. ABGSCe), for a margin of 6.2% (ABGSCe 4.7%, 4.1% Q3'24) driven by good result in Asfaltsgruppen. Looking at y-o-y development, we see positive development in all segments. There is a SEK 0.9m one off cost in due to the divestment of Mikaels Grävjänst which was on our estimates.Estimate changes and outlookLooking ahead, management is not providing a formal outlook. However, they acknowledge that the market remains challenging. Nevertheless, we consider Infrea's strong margin and positive internal development to be signs that it is navigating the market well. We expect estimates for '25e-'27e adj. EBITA to mechanically come up by 10-15%.Final thoughtsA solid report with ales in line with expectations and strong profitability. The share has outperformed the broader market into numbers (4% L1M vs. OMXSGI 0%) and is trading at 10-6x EBITA '25e-'27e. We believe that the market will recognise the positive margin development resulting from Infrea's hard internal work.
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