* Entering 2026e in better shape * Early signs of an improving market * 7-5x EV/EBITA '26e-'28e, 16-10% FCF yields
In better shape
Infrea is entering 2026e with a clearer business model and in better internal shape. The Water & Sewage segment has been sold, and Martin Reinholdsson has now held the CEO position for one and a half years. During this time, Infrea's main focus has been to streamline its processes. In 2025 we saw continuous steps forward, and we believe that with this internal uplift and an improving market (higher order intakes for the construction companies, better outlooks etc.), Infrea should be positioned to capitalise on the momentum. Regarding Q1e, we believe that the cold winter affected the beginning of the year and the higher fuel and bitumen prices at the end of the quarter will impact margins. We expect Infrea to deliver Land & Construction (L&C) y-o-y sales growth of 0% and Paving Services (PS) growth of 2%. We look for L&C and PS EBITA of SEK -7m and SEK -36m, respectively, as Q1 is a slow quarter for construction companies (19% of sales).
Estimate changes
We still think the market is regionally tough in some areas, but we can see some light in the tunnel for Swedish construction e.g. higher residential starts (even if it is from a low level), which should take away some competition and price pressure for Infrea. We now forecast '26 adj. EBITA of SEK 62m (SEK 49m '25), accelerating to SEK 72m in 2027e, as margins improve from 2.2% in '25 to 3.3% in '27e.
Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise
We believe Infrea is well-positioned to grow organically and improve margins, given its exposure to underlying demand and public customers (~55%), with support from M&A (24% sales CAGR in '20-'23). For '25-'28e, we expect Infrea to deliver EBITA growth and FCF in line with peers. The share is currently trading at 7-5x EV/EBITA with a 16-10% FCF yield.