* We expect Civil Engineering spending to rise * Taking advantages from being part of a group * 7-4x EBITA '26e-'28e, 17-13% FCF yields
Civil engineering on the rise
On Thursday we hosted Infrea's CEO, Martin Reinholdsson, at ABGSC's Investor Days. Mr. Reinholdsson opened by placing Infrea in the context of the infrastructure investment surge currently taking place in Sweden. Interestingly, it has been talked about for years but has not really materialised. However, according to Veidekke's half-yearly market report, 2026 is the year it will take off. Infrea appears well positioned to capture growth from increased defence spending in roads and civil engineering, as well as from increasing demand for energy, water and sewerage infrastructure.
The benefits of being part of a group
Infrea has also made meaningful progress on internal efficiency. A key part of its journey in recent years has been improving knowledge sharing across the group companies, including best practices and practical tips. This is an effort that Infrea's management has been undertaking for some time, and the benefits are now becoming visible. For example, with the Middle East situation pushing fuel prices higher, Infrea can share approaches to indexation across the group to offset the impact, something standalone small companies would find harder to do on their own. AI is another area where the group is increasingly benefiting from its scale.
Margins to improve and FCF to stabilise
We believe that Infrea is well positioned to grow organically and improve margins, given its exposure to underlying demand and to public customers (~55%), as well as support from M&A (13% sales CAGR in '21-'24). For '25-'28e, we expect Infrea to deliver profitability growth and FCF above peers, but with slightly lower margins and sales growth. The share is trading at 7-4x adj. EBITA on '26e-'28e with a 17-13% lease-adj. FCF yield, while peers are trading at 7-6x.