* Adj. EBITA SEK 57m, 6% below ABGSCe SEK 61m
* Organic growth softer than expected
* Consensus adj. EBITA revisions likely down l.s.d
Top-line miss, margin held up by mix
The Q3 report was below expectations on sales and adj. EBITA. However, it was better than expected on EPS due to positive net financials. Sales were SEK 910m (-4% vs ABGSCe 948m), for y-o-y growth of 1.7% (-4.3pp vs ABGSCe 5.9%). Organic growth was -3.7% (-4.9pp vs ABGSCe 1.2%), with Risenta adding 4.5% and FX 0.9%. Own consumer brands were -0.2% org., licenced brands -2% and contract manufacturing -11%. By division, Nordics sales were SEK 607m (5.3% y-o-y, org. -3.0%) with own consumer brands +2% org. but contract manufacturing -45% on terminated low-margin contracts. North Europe was the weak link at SEK 212m (org. -10%), where own consumer brands fell 17% org. on delistings at a large grocery customer and the summer heatwave. South Europe grew 10% org. on light fire-hit comps. The adj. GM was the bright spot at 29% (1.0pp above ABGSCe), driven by mix (higher share of own brands) and complexity reduction, partly offset by higher transport and packaging costs not yet passed on. Adj. EBITA came in at SEK 57m, 6% below estimates, but the margin of 5% was in line with ABGSCe. The EPS beat of 27% was mainly due to an FX translation gain of 9m.
Strategy review widens
The CEO states the quarter “did not live up to our ambitions”. R12M organic growth is -1.3% and the adj. EBIT margin 4.3%, against the 2027 targets of 3-5% and >8%. Management is deepening the brand portfolio review, with capital and marketing to be concentrated on fewer differentiated brands. In North Europe, the fix is a stronger offering plus “cost adjustments”; in consumer health, management concedes execution has been too slow. Spain is to be made profitable in a smaller format without rebuilding lost capacity, while “more transformative alternatives” are being evaluated. Marketing spend on priority brands will continue to weigh on near-term margins, and input cost increases (transport, packaging, drought-hit raw materials) have not yet been pushed through to customers.
Estimate revisions likely minor, but negative
The share had a very strong start to the year, reaching SEK 15 in July but has been soft since the Q2 report, dropping ~13% in the last 90 days. Midsona is trading at ~7x NTM EV/EBITA on our unrevised estimates. Our initial understanding of the report as well as a mechanical calculation suggest that consensus' adj. EBITA estimates for '26e-'28e could be negative within a low-single-digit range. The company will host a presentation of the Q3 report at CET 11.00 (link).