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Third party research

Ogunsen: Beats financial targets for 2021 - ABG

Ogunsen

This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values

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Q4 EBIT in top end of pre-announced range
High demand has continued in Q1‘22
Proposes dividend of SEK 3.30 (2.00) per share

Q4: Organic sales growth of 35% y-o-y
Ogunsen reported Q4 sales of SEK 122m (+35% y-o-y, all organic). The numbers had been pre-announced. The growth was driven by high demand for staffing and a sharp recovery in recruitment revenues. For staffing, it seems Ogunsen had a high utilization of its own employees, was able to raise prices towards customers and used sub-consultants to a higher degree than last year in order to meet demand. This resulted in sales growth of 29% y-o-y. Recruitment constituted 15% of total sales and grew 83% y-o-y, giving a solid contribution to the overall sales growth of the group. The strong growth rate y-o-y was due to the fact that the business area was negatively affected by the pandemic in 2020. EBIT was SEK 16.0m (4.3m), which was at the top end of the pre-announced range and 5% above ABGSCe. The board proposed a dividend of SEK 3.30 (2.00) per share, which equals the reported EPS for 2021.

We raise EBIT margin assumptions slightly
The high demand that Ogunsen is currently experiencing has continued in the early stages of Q1. The company has started the year with a substantially higher employee count than it did in 2021 and still sees solid demand, which makes us optimistic about the full-year outlook. We forecast sales growth for ‘22e of 14% with an EBIT margin of 11%. Our revisions in this report mainly stem from slightly higher expected EBIT margins that make us raise ‘22e-’23e EBIT by 1.9%-3.2%.

‘22e P/E of 10.7x, expected dividend yield of 8.3%
We assess that Ogunsen is on track to deliver on its financial targets, which are to double the sales volume by 2026 and have an EBIT margin of at least 10%. However, in order to reach the target for sales growth we believe acquisitions will be needed as we currently factor in an average organic growth rate of ~8% over our forecast period. The share is trading at a ‘22e P/E
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