* Positive organic growth will take time
* We slightly lower our sales estimates due to a reduction in FTEs
* Trading ~10% below peer median
Q2'26 report
Ogunsen reported Q2'26 sales of SEK 108m, marking a y-o-y decrease of 3%. It is worth keeping in mind that returning to positive growth is tough for consulting firms, as growth depends on billable hours, which is affected by lower headcount, and average FTEs at Ogunsen are down to 362 from 370 a year ago. Demand in the consulting segment was stable y-o-y, although fewer consultants, slightly lower utilisation and lower hourly rates weighed on sales. Recruitment demand remained slightly below last year but improved sequentially, indicating tentative signs of stabilisation. Adj. EBIT came in at SEK 4.6m (3.3m in Q2'25), with a higher margin of 4.3% (3.0%), likely driven by some cost control at the company.
Slightly lowering our sales estimates
The market remains tough, and we slightly lower our sales estimates by 4% for '26e-'28e on the back of the report. Consequently, we also lower our adj. EBIT estimates by 28% for ’26e, as lower sales and fewer billable FTEs result in negative operating leverage, partly offset by continued cost control. A recovery in the consulting market will likely take time, with stronger margins eventually following from that.
Getting better, but it takes time
Ogunsen is trading at 10x-5x EV/adj. EBIT for '26e-'28e, ~10% below the peer median valuation. We see some demand KPIs improving, but we emphasise that Swedish wage agreements push salaries higher every year, so margin expansion remains a challenge in this environment. What still needs to return, in our view, is demand at normalised levels, along with positive net recruitment and room for price increases. That said, the improving demand trend and a leaner cost base provide a more supportive foundation for a gradual recovery.