* Has already pre-announced sales and EBIT for Q1 * We assume a recovery in sales growth in H2'26e * Q1'26 results due 5 May
Q1'26 expectations
OssDsign pre-announced preliminary Q1 sales of SEK 36.9m and an expected EBIT range of SEK -12m to -14m for Q1 on 10 April (see Declining sales in Q1), removing much of the uncertainty ahead of the full Q1 release on 5 May. Q1 sales of SEK 36.9m implies an organic decline of 3.6%, or -17.1% in SEK. We have revised our forecast to reflect Q1 sales of SEK 36.9m and EBIT of SEK -13.1m, in the middle of the pre-announced EBIT range, with a gross margin of 95.5% and opex of SEK 48.3m. Management have stated that they have remedied the execution shortcomings that resulted in the weak sales in Q1, and have hired new sales people in the US. We have assumed sales growth to gradually improve over the coming quarters, but from a lower base.
Estimate changes
Ahead of Q1, we cut our sales forecasts by 17-19% for '26e-'28e on the back of the weak sales performance in Q1. We have cut our organic sales growth forecast for '26 to +5.3% from 30%, assuming flat organic growth in Q2'26e and a recovery back to growth in H2'26e.
Fair value range down to SEK 4.0-6.2 (7-14)
We cut our fair value range, based on our updated forecasts, to SEK 4.0-6.2 (7-14) ahead of the Q1 results. Our fair value range is derived from a DCF model, applying a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 10%. While near-term sales and earnings remain soft, impacted by a lack of sales channel expansion and turnover of certain sales reps, we continue to see meaningful long-term potential, supported by improved adoption of Catalyst in the US, high gross margins, and increasing operating leverage as the sales base scales. We expect the share price performance to remain muted until the company shows clear signs of improvements in the ramp-up of sales after three quarters of relatively flat sales before the disappointing decline in Q1.