* Transition of US sales team to drive a turnaround in sales generation
* No change to mid-term targets
* Fair value range revised down to SEK 3.1-5.1 (3.2-5.4)
Miss on sales, but opex better in Q3
Q3 marked another quarter with soft sales momentum but with good cost control for OssDsign. The weak sales performance was mainly attributed to changes in the US sales organisation. Ten out of 16 sales and marketing team members were replaced during the year, causing short-term disruption to the team. With a new VP of sales now in place, we expect the transition of the US organisation to drive a turnaround in the sales trajectory, with the first signs already visible in Q4. Management has not changed its mid-term target of more than SEK 400m in sales by 2028, which would imply an average growth rate >60% vs. the current LTM sales level of SEK 155m and our assumption of a sales CAGR of ~34% until '28e.
Adj. EBIT +7% in '26, but down for '27e-'28e
Despite lowering '26e sales by 3.8%, we raise our (now less negative) '26 adj. EBIT by 7.0% after Q3 on lowered opex assumptions. However, we reduce adj. EBIT for '27e-'28e by 2.6% and 6.8%, respectively, on lowered sales assumptions. We expect to see an improvement in sales generation in Q4 compared with Q3, but it will still be below the level seen in Q4'25, as we are forecasting a 15% decline in organic sales in Q4'26e.
Fair value range cut to SEK 3.1-5.1 (3.2-5.4)
Based on our updated estimates, we lower our DCF-based fair value range to SEK 3.1-5.1 (3.2-5.4). The stock is trading at an NTM EV/Sales multiple of 1.2x (based on Capital IQ consensus), which is well below its historical average of 4x and its one-year average of 2.1x, but we do not expect sentiment to improve until we see clear signs of improved commercial momentum after several quarters of muted performance.