Ovzon: Better than expected across the line - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Sales +159% y-o-y on recent orders; +18%/+16% vs. ABG/cons
* EBIT was +83% vs. ABG and +82% vs. cons
* Expect cons to raise '26e EBIT 5-10%, share to outperform today
Q4 results
Sales SEK 277m (18% vs ABGSCe 234m and 16% vs cons 239m), adj. EBIT 74m (83% vs ABG 41m and 82% vs cons 41m). As expected, NWC trends remained favourable, resulting in FCF of SEK 133m (vs. SEK 52m in Q4'24). This resulted in a NIBD of SEK 252m, down from 642m in Q4'24. The order book stood at a robust SEK 1.0bn by the end of Q4, driven by recent orders, including a terminal order from FMV and a milestone contract with a NATO customer (60% of which comprised terminals and 40% SATCOM).
Q4 thoughts
After quiet period in terms of order announcements, this improved markedly in Q4. Furthermore, sales continued to improve, driven by deliveries of recent orders. Here, SATCOM revenue was slightly ahead of our forecast (SEK 177m vs. ABGSCe SEK 169m), but the main sales beat came from higher terminal sales, amounting to SEK 100m (ABGSCe SEK 65m) and accounting for 36% of Q4 revenue. Although gross margins declined sequentially amid mix effects and the ramp-up of expanded third-party capacity (related to the SEK 1bn FMV order from mid-25), this was expected, and the Q4 level of 58% was better than our forecast 54%. In terms of outlook, Ovzon highlights a growing demand, particularly in Europe. Furthermore, it says that it is entering 2026 with a strong momentum, underpinned by the robust backlog that provides multi-year revenue visibility.
Estimate changes
At a first glance, we expect consensus to raise '26e EBIT by 5-10%, mainly driven by higher gross margin assumptions. All in all, another strong report, and we expect the share to outperform the market today. The stock is trading at 20x '26e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates.
* EBIT was +83% vs. ABG and +82% vs. cons
* Expect cons to raise '26e EBIT 5-10%, share to outperform today
Q4 results
Sales SEK 277m (18% vs ABGSCe 234m and 16% vs cons 239m), adj. EBIT 74m (83% vs ABG 41m and 82% vs cons 41m). As expected, NWC trends remained favourable, resulting in FCF of SEK 133m (vs. SEK 52m in Q4'24). This resulted in a NIBD of SEK 252m, down from 642m in Q4'24. The order book stood at a robust SEK 1.0bn by the end of Q4, driven by recent orders, including a terminal order from FMV and a milestone contract with a NATO customer (60% of which comprised terminals and 40% SATCOM).
Q4 thoughts
After quiet period in terms of order announcements, this improved markedly in Q4. Furthermore, sales continued to improve, driven by deliveries of recent orders. Here, SATCOM revenue was slightly ahead of our forecast (SEK 177m vs. ABGSCe SEK 169m), but the main sales beat came from higher terminal sales, amounting to SEK 100m (ABGSCe SEK 65m) and accounting for 36% of Q4 revenue. Although gross margins declined sequentially amid mix effects and the ramp-up of expanded third-party capacity (related to the SEK 1bn FMV order from mid-25), this was expected, and the Q4 level of 58% was better than our forecast 54%. In terms of outlook, Ovzon highlights a growing demand, particularly in Europe. Furthermore, it says that it is entering 2026 with a strong momentum, underpinned by the robust backlog that provides multi-year revenue visibility.
Estimate changes
At a first glance, we expect consensus to raise '26e EBIT by 5-10%, mainly driven by higher gross margin assumptions. All in all, another strong report, and we expect the share to outperform the market today. The stock is trading at 20x '26e EV/EBIT on our unrevised estimates.