Prevas: A cautious close to 2025 - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* 2025 to end on a soft note
* We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-4%
* Trading at 10-7x EV/EBITA for '26e-'27e
A soft quarter awaits
Prevas will release its Q4 report on 10 February. We expect a soft quarter, shaped by ongoing market uncertainty. Our sales estimate is SEK 430m, an organic decline of 1%, affected by slightly negative net recruitments and impacted by higher number of staff on holiday leave. Recent data from the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Swe: KI) still points to weak demand and pressure on hourly rates, meaning that technical consulting market continues to face headwinds. For Q4, we expect EBITA of SEK 29m (6.9% margin).
Cutting EBITA by 8% for Q4e
For the reasons above, we keep sales flat but cut EBITA by 8% for Q4e. For '26e-'27e, we cut EBITA by 2-4%. The market is still challenging, with low visibility and little pricing power in many segments. However, Prevas has made adjustments in areas with lower demand, and we believe they will continue to do so. We remain cautious on Denmark (~10% of total sales), were several companies (e.g. Novo Nordisk, Siemens, Vestas) have reduced their use of consultants and laid off employees, resulting in lower demand in the region.
Trading at 10-7x EV/EBITA, ~15% below peers
Based on our revised estimates, Prevas is trading at 10-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~15% below the peer average. The company is trading ~25% above its historical EV/EBITA multiple. While the current environment continues to be challenging, we believe the company has a strong foundation for the future. Prevas has a solid position in engineering, defence and energy, where demand should hold up. Cost actions are already underway, and utilisation should slowly improve when market start normalising, which we think will happen in late 2026.
* We cut '26e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2-4%
* Trading at 10-7x EV/EBITA for '26e-'27e
A soft quarter awaits
Prevas will release its Q4 report on 10 February. We expect a soft quarter, shaped by ongoing market uncertainty. Our sales estimate is SEK 430m, an organic decline of 1%, affected by slightly negative net recruitments and impacted by higher number of staff on holiday leave. Recent data from the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Swe: KI) still points to weak demand and pressure on hourly rates, meaning that technical consulting market continues to face headwinds. For Q4, we expect EBITA of SEK 29m (6.9% margin).
Cutting EBITA by 8% for Q4e
For the reasons above, we keep sales flat but cut EBITA by 8% for Q4e. For '26e-'27e, we cut EBITA by 2-4%. The market is still challenging, with low visibility and little pricing power in many segments. However, Prevas has made adjustments in areas with lower demand, and we believe they will continue to do so. We remain cautious on Denmark (~10% of total sales), were several companies (e.g. Novo Nordisk, Siemens, Vestas) have reduced their use of consultants and laid off employees, resulting in lower demand in the region.
Trading at 10-7x EV/EBITA, ~15% below peers
Based on our revised estimates, Prevas is trading at 10-7x '26e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~15% below the peer average. The company is trading ~25% above its historical EV/EBITA multiple. While the current environment continues to be challenging, we believe the company has a strong foundation for the future. Prevas has a solid position in engineering, defence and energy, where demand should hold up. Cost actions are already underway, and utilisation should slowly improve when market start normalising, which we think will happen in late 2026.