Prevas: Positioned for improved conditions - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Seasonally weak quarter* We cut '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2%Trading ~20% below current peers on '25e EV/EBITA
Q3: Built for the long term
Prevas will release its Q3'25 report on 24 October. We expect sales of SEK 351m, flat y-o-y growth, reflecting seasonal softness, as the holiday period typically weighs on activity across the consulting sector. We estimate organic growth at -3%, primarily due to fewer billable days and continued market slowdowns. We anticipate adj. EBITA of SEK 23m, implying an adj. EBITA margin of 7%. We continue to see defence and energy segments as solid growth areas. In Finland, market conditions appear to be gradually improving, supported by a solid order book and the integration of Enmac. The medtech acquisition in southern Sweden (OIM) was consolidated at the end of Q3, and we expect a minor positive impact on the result.
Minor adjustments to estimates
We make minor changes to our estimates and cut '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2%, which reflects continued softness in market conditions. That said, we view this as a cyclical downturn rather than structural. When consultants are between projects, costs persist while revenue lags. We expect this effect to gradually normalise as demand stabilises and project onboarding accelerates in H1'26e. Furthermore, we believe that Finland (as well as core segments like defence and energy) will continue to strengthen Prevas' position.
Trading below peers
Based on our revised estimates, Prevas is trading at 10-5x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below current peer multiples. Moreover, Prevas is trading ~15% below its historical EV/EBITA multiple. In our view, current earnings are cyclically depressed, and we do not believe the current margin profile reflects Prevas' long-term earnings capacity. As operational efficiencies begin to materialise and utilisation recovers, we see room for earnings expansion.
Q3: Built for the long term
Prevas will release its Q3'25 report on 24 October. We expect sales of SEK 351m, flat y-o-y growth, reflecting seasonal softness, as the holiday period typically weighs on activity across the consulting sector. We estimate organic growth at -3%, primarily due to fewer billable days and continued market slowdowns. We anticipate adj. EBITA of SEK 23m, implying an adj. EBITA margin of 7%. We continue to see defence and energy segments as solid growth areas. In Finland, market conditions appear to be gradually improving, supported by a solid order book and the integration of Enmac. The medtech acquisition in southern Sweden (OIM) was consolidated at the end of Q3, and we expect a minor positive impact on the result.
Minor adjustments to estimates
We make minor changes to our estimates and cut '25e-'27e adj. EBITA by 2%, which reflects continued softness in market conditions. That said, we view this as a cyclical downturn rather than structural. When consultants are between projects, costs persist while revenue lags. We expect this effect to gradually normalise as demand stabilises and project onboarding accelerates in H1'26e. Furthermore, we believe that Finland (as well as core segments like defence and energy) will continue to strengthen Prevas' position.
Trading below peers
Based on our revised estimates, Prevas is trading at 10-5x '25e-'27e EV/EBITA, which is ~20% below current peer multiples. Moreover, Prevas is trading ~15% below its historical EV/EBITA multiple. In our view, current earnings are cyclically depressed, and we do not believe the current margin profile reflects Prevas' long-term earnings capacity. As operational efficiencies begin to materialise and utilisation recovers, we see room for earnings expansion.