* Steady growth despite Enterprise caution
* Earnings trajectory shifts further out
* Scaling to drive profitability
Steady growth despite near-term Enterprise caution
We expect a third consecutive profitable quarter from Qliro in Q3, with SEK 2.8m in operating profit. We expect TPV at SEK 6.6bn, up 26% y-o-y, supported by merchant onboarding and SME growth, albeit at a more moderate pace than in H1. We believe Enterprise activity could remain cautious ahead of CCD2 in November, before picking up thereafter. Our estimates imply total income of SEK 120.6m (+22% y-o-y) and costs of SEK 93.7m. While near-term growth is more measured, we see stronger earnings potential in 2027-28e as scaling translates into profitability.
Near-term estimates lowered, long-term earnings raised
Ahead of Q3, we make modest top-line revisions but reshape our earnings trajectory to reflect more measured near-term growth and stronger profitability further out. For 2026e, total income is lowered by 1.8% and costs by 1.1%, reducing operating profit by 48%. Conversely, we raise 2027e-28e operating profit by 27% and 35%, reflecting stronger operating leverage as the business scales. Our forecasts imply 21% income growth in 2026e and 14-16% in 2027e-28e.
Scaling supports long-term earnings growth
Despite a more measured near-term growth trajectory, scaling looks set to drive profitability, supported by merchant onboarding, BNPL penetration and loan book growth. We forecast operating profit to increase from SEK 13m in 2026e to SEK 44m in 2027e and SEK 81m in 2028e, alongside a C/I improvement from 78% to 64%. Qliro is trading at 20x and 10x P/E for 2027e and '28e, respectively, and ~0.8x P/BV. The PPRO partnership provides an additional growth channel from 2027. Lastly, Hannes Wadell joins the company as CFO on 3 November, bringing a permanent CFO into the management team ahead of the next phase of scaling and profitability.