* Q1 sales 11% lower than ABGSCe SEK 43m
* Improved gross profit, likely due to favourable mix
* Likely modestly negative consensus estimate revisions
Q1'26 report
Skolon reported net sales of SEK 38m (-11% vs ABGSCe 43m), corresponding to a 19% y-o-y organic growth (-16pp vs ABGSCe 35%). However, the gross margin increased slightly to 36%, in line with our expectations and likely driven by a more favourable mix. ARPPU was SEK 196, which was in line with what we expected. The number of paying users, however, was 1,038k, slightly below our expectation of 1,061k.
Thoughts and outlook
Q1 is usually the smallest quarter with lower activity but Skolon continues to increase its gross margin and the ARPPU, which we see as strong signs of the underlying business. Worth noting is that EBITDA turned slightly positive in the quarter, compared to last year's period. Sweden remains the main contributor for Skolon and continues to drive profitability, while international markets are still in an investment phase. Interestingly, the company announced its partnership with NE, a leading content provider on the Swedish market, which we see a meaningful addition to the platform.
Consensus estimate revisions and valuation
The share is down roughly 30% YTD and is trading at 5-4x '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit on our unrevised estimates. Following the report, we believe that consensus could lower sales estimates by mid single-digits.