* Q2 sales 11% higher than ABGSCe SEK 62m
* Gross margin down slightly, likely due to unfavourable mix
* Likely modestly positive consensus estimate revisions
Q2'26 report
Skolon reported net sales of SEK 69m (+11% vs ABGSC 62m), which was better than we expected, corresponding to organic growth of 26%. The ARPPU came in at SEK 201 (+2% vs ABGSC 197), with the number of paying users increasing to 1,083k, above our expectation of 1,073k. The gross margin declined a little bit y-o-y (likely due to a relatively higher share of partner revenues), from just over 24% to roughly 22%. From a geographic point of view, this was due to the gross margin in Sweden compressing from nearly 33% to nearly 30%, and that's consistent with the notion that the share of partner revenues had increased y-o-y, as Sweden is a relatively more mature market in terms of user penetration.
Thoughts and outlook
The company continues to invest in international markets as Sweden increasingly becomes a mature market. Although the EBITDA was negative, due to the expansionary, international investments in new geographies such as Germany, Sweden delivered a positive EBITDA of SEK 2.7m. In Q2 Skolon launched Skolon AI Studio, letting partners distribute AI based tools through its school network, which fits the existing partner revenue model. The contribution is not yet quantifiable.
Consensus estimate revisions and valuation
The share is down 23% YTD and is trading at 6-4x '26e-'27e EV/Gross profit on our unrevised estimates. Following the report, we believe that consensus could increase sales estimates by low single-digits.