Skolon: Taking its first steps into Germany - ABG
This is a third party research report and does not necessarily reflect our views or values
* Sales -4% vs. ABGSCe at SEK 55m
* EBITDA better than expected (SEK -0.5m vs. -1.3m)
* Positive consensus EBITDA estimate revisionsQ2'25 reportSkolon delivered net sales of SEK 55m (-4% vs ABGSCe 57m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 36% (-8pp vs ABGSCe 45%). The gross margin slightly decreased to 24% (1pp vs ABGSCe 23%). While the growth could appear to be volume driven, the inflow of new users is due to a new Norwegian contract, and we assess that sales from that contract will not come in until Q3. As such, we believe that the underlying growth was driven by an increase in usage of partner tools, as alluded by the lower GM. EBITDA amounted to SEK -1m (1m vs ABGSCe -1m), ARPPU came in at SEK 173 (-1% vs ABGSCe 175), as the number of paying users amounted to SEK 962k (0% vs ABGSCe 962k). The opex growth is partly attributable to costs taken in order to expand in the UK and new markets. Moreover, H1'25 cash flow improved to SEK 7m, compared to -5m in H1'24.Thoughts and outlookH1'25 has shown growth of 37%, primarily driven by volume. While EBITDA was negative, it was better than expected, and the EBITDA margin improved from -4% in Q2'24 to -1% in Q2'25. We further note that the Swedish operations yield an EBITDA margin of 2% (vs. -8% for its other, newer, markets), and that is confirmatory of the company's scaling opportunity. Internationally, the growth expansion opportunity is significant. Moreover, Skolon is officially entering the German market, by signing a contract for 35 schools with the school organisation Schulbits in Landkreis Günzburg, Bavaria.Consensus estimate revisions and valuationThe share is up 1% YTD and is trading at 4x-3x EV/Sales '25e-'26e on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on '25e-'26e consensus sales should be relatively flat, if somewhat negative (l.s.d.), and the EBITDA impact within a positive m.s.d. range.
* EBITDA better than expected (SEK -0.5m vs. -1.3m)
* Positive consensus EBITDA estimate revisionsQ2'25 reportSkolon delivered net sales of SEK 55m (-4% vs ABGSCe 57m), corresponding to y-o-y organic growth of 36% (-8pp vs ABGSCe 45%). The gross margin slightly decreased to 24% (1pp vs ABGSCe 23%). While the growth could appear to be volume driven, the inflow of new users is due to a new Norwegian contract, and we assess that sales from that contract will not come in until Q3. As such, we believe that the underlying growth was driven by an increase in usage of partner tools, as alluded by the lower GM. EBITDA amounted to SEK -1m (1m vs ABGSCe -1m), ARPPU came in at SEK 173 (-1% vs ABGSCe 175), as the number of paying users amounted to SEK 962k (0% vs ABGSCe 962k). The opex growth is partly attributable to costs taken in order to expand in the UK and new markets. Moreover, H1'25 cash flow improved to SEK 7m, compared to -5m in H1'24.Thoughts and outlookH1'25 has shown growth of 37%, primarily driven by volume. While EBITDA was negative, it was better than expected, and the EBITDA margin improved from -4% in Q2'24 to -1% in Q2'25. We further note that the Swedish operations yield an EBITDA margin of 2% (vs. -8% for its other, newer, markets), and that is confirmatory of the company's scaling opportunity. Internationally, the growth expansion opportunity is significant. Moreover, Skolon is officially entering the German market, by signing a contract for 35 schools with the school organisation Schulbits in Landkreis Günzburg, Bavaria.Consensus estimate revisions and valuationThe share is up 1% YTD and is trading at 4x-3x EV/Sales '25e-'26e on our unrevised estimates. The mechanical impact on '25e-'26e consensus sales should be relatively flat, if somewhat negative (l.s.d.), and the EBITDA impact within a positive m.s.d. range.