MPC Energy Solutions - Presentation of Q3 2026 results

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MPC Energy Solutions is expected to release its Q3 2026 results on 5 November 2026. The same day at 12:00, Stefan Meichsner, CFO and interim CEO, will present the third-quarter results, provide an update on developments since the H1 2026 report, and answer questions from the audience in a live online event.

In H1 2026, MPCES reported proportionate project revenues of USD 5.3 million and project EBITDA of USD 3.8 million (a 72% margin), with the remaining portfolio broadly stable on a like-for-like basis. Overhead costs fell 18% year-on-year, and management confirmed its full-year 2026 projection of USD 7.5 million proportionate revenue and USD 3.2 million group EBITDA, alongside a year-end free cash projection of USD 33 million before distributions. With the company now in the final stage of its wind-down, the Q3 figures are of secondary importance; the report will instead be read as a progress check on asset monetisation and the return of capital to shareholders.

The defining development since H1 is the first capital distribution. On 26 August 2026, MPCES announced a share capital reduction and a distribution of USD 1.32 per share, approximately USD 29.4 million in total, declared in USD and paid in NOK (NOK 12.1867 per share), with payment made on 4 September 2026. This delivers on the distribution plan approved at the AGM on 27 May 2026, under which shareholders authorised total distributions of up to USD 45 million (EUR 1.70 per share), and it confirms the roughly USD 29 million first tranche that Stefan Meichsner guided toward at the H1 webcast. The timing and size of the next tranche toward the USD 45 million ceiling will be a central question.

The portfolio has also been substantially simplified. Project Merlin, the sale of San Patricio (Guatemala) and Santa Rosa & Villa Sol (El Salvador), closed on 28 July 2026 for total proceeds of USD 28.3 million, after San Patricio (66.1 MWp) achieved commercial operations on 13 July. In early August, MPCES signed the sale of its last Colombian project, Los Girasoles (12.3 MWp), exiting Colombia entirely. That leaves the group with cash, the 15.8 MWp Los Santos solar plant in Mexico, and a 7% equity stake in a US-based microgrid developer.

Mexico is now the central operational question. A June 2026 change to the Mexican energy law raised transmission charges for renewable plants, including legacy projects such as Los Santos, with a potentially severe impact on project value. MPCES has paused active divestment discussions and is assessing a migration to the new regulatory regime, which would require a permit extension and a renegotiation of the project's PPA and non-recourse financing. As the structure is non-recourse, management has signalled it does not intend to inject further equity. Both Los Santos and the microgrid stake are expected to remain with the group beyond year-end 2026.

In addition to the Q3 financials, focus is therefore likely to centre on the next distribution tranche toward the USD 45 million ceiling, the regulatory restructuring of Los Santos, the realisable value of the remaining assets, and the running cost and listing status of the group through the tail of the wind-down.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from MPC Energy Solutions for a Corporate Visibility/Digital IR subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, kl. 10.23, d. 06.10.2026.