Alma Media Q3'26 preview: We expect key metrics to have continued upwards
Summary
- Alma Media is expected to report Q3'26 revenue growth of approximately 5%, driven by the Marketplaces segment and supported by an acquisition, despite challenges in the housing and automotive markets.
- The company's adjusted EBIT for Q3'26 is anticipated to rise to 25.8 MEUR, with an improved EBIT margin of 30.8%, reflecting high-margin revenue and scalability in Marketplaces and Career segments.
- Alma Media's 2026 guidance suggests revenue will remain at 2025 levels, with adjusted EBIT growth; estimates indicate a 5% revenue increase and 15-17% EBIT growth, potentially leading to a guidance raise later this year.
- News Media's profitability is expected to improve due to a shift from print to higher-margin digital revenue, alongside continuous efficiency measures across the group.
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Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/27/2026 at 07:55 am EET
| Estimates | Q3'25 | Q3'26 | Q3'26e | Q3'26e | Consensus | 2026e | |||
| MEUR / EUR | Comparison | Actualized | Inderes | Consensus | Low | High | Inderes | ||
| Revenue | 79.3 | 83.6 | 82.9 | 82.0 | - | 83.6 | 345 | ||
| EBIT (adj.) | 22.7 | 25.8 | 25.4 | 25.1 | - | 25.8 | 95.9 | ||
| EBIT | 22.6 | 25.6 | 25.4 | 25.1 | - | 25.8 | 95.2 | ||
| EPS (rep.) | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.22 | - | 0.24 | 0.88 | ||
| Revenue growth-% | 5.5 % | 5.5 % | 4.6 % | 3.5% | - | 5.5% | 5.3 % | ||
| EBIT-% (adj.) | 28.6 % | 30.8 % | 30.6 % | 30.6% | - | 30.9% | 27.8 % | ||
Source: Inderes &Modular Finance (consensus, 5 estimates)
Alma Media will publish its Q3'26 report on Thursday at around 8:00 am EET. We estimate the company's revenue growth to have continued, which we also expect to have efficiently flowed to earnings, reflecting the scalability of the business. The 2026 estimates expect clear revenue growth and substantial earnings growth, meaning the company is expected to easily achieve its guidance for the current year.
Career and Marketplaces drive growth
We expect Alma Media's revenue to have grown by 5% in Q3 to close on 84 MEUR. In our estimates, the Group's revenue growth is particularly driven by the Marketplaces segment (11%), which receives some support from an acquisition. Despite the sluggish housing and automotive markets, we believe Marketplaces nevertheless achieved organic growth, driven by, e.g., the growth of the commercial property market service in Sweden. Reflecting Eastern Europe's tight labor market and Alma Media's own growth initiatives, we also expect Career to have achieved 5% growth. Domestic economic growth has boosted the advertising market, and thanks to online advertising and strong content sales, we expect News Media's revenue to have performed steadily despite a substantial structural contraction in print sales.
We again anticipate a clear improvement in profitability
We expect Alma Media's Q3 adjusted EBIT to have risen to 25.8 MEUR. Thus, we expect Alma Media's adjusted EBIT margin to increase from a very good comparison level further to 30.8% (Q3'25): 28.6%). We expect profitability to have strengthened year-on-year across all segments, reflecting the high-margin revenue and scalability of Marketplaces and Career. In News Media, the profitability improvement is driven by a change in the revenue structure, as higher-margin digital revenue replaces print revenue there as well. In addition, Alma Media generally implements continuous efficiency improvement measures on a group level. The growth in the operational earnings will also clearly drive EPS above the comparison period in our estimates.
Substantial earnings growth is expected
Alma Media's guidance for 2026 is that revenue remains at the 2025 level and the adjusted EBIT grows. Ahead of the Q3 report, our estimate for this year's revenue is 345 MEUR and 95.9 MEUR for adjusted EBIT. The corresponding consensus estimates are 342 MEUR in revenue and 94.1 MEUR in adjusted EBIT. Thus, we expect revenue growth of some 5% and adjusted EBIT growth of around 15-17%. We suspect that these estimates are at the upper end of the current verbal guidance, even though we do not know the exact limits of the verbal guidance. Thus, we believe that raising the guidance later this year is a realistic possibility if the company's Q3 has proceeded in line with our expectations.