Apetit Q3'25 preview: Organically upward trend in earnings outlook

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/21/2025 at 07:08 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Apetit will report its Q3 results on Friday morning, October 24. We expect the company's earnings to be slightly below the record comparison period, but still at a good level and developing favorably compared to a difficult start to the year. The availability of raw material for oilseed products has improved with a good harvest, which supports the organic earnings outlook alongside other growth initiatives. The company's recently announced acquisition in Sweden increases the uncertainty of our estimates, but we expect the company to provide more information about the acquisition in the near future.

Moderate growth in sight

We expect Apetit’s Q3 revenue to be 41.6 MEUR, a 3% growth from the comparison period. The growth forecast for Food Solutions is 2%, which we believe will be volume-driven. For oilseed products, we anticipate 3% growth, which means a decelerating growth relative to previous quarters (H1: 7%). This is due to the stagnation of the increase in raw material prices and a slight drop during 2025. The revenue of oilseed products is affected not only by prices but also by the possible increase in the relative share of higher value-added products. The company will invest in a new vegetable oil bottling line during 2024, although the line will mainly replace products previously produced by subcontractors.

Earnings close to last year’s strong level

We estimate Apetit’s Q3 EBIT to be 3.3 MEUR and close to the level of the comparison period (3.7 MEUR), which was record strong even from a decade-long perspective. In H1, the company's earnings still suffered from the upward trajectory of oilseed raw material, but in H2, we believe this should be corrected as purchasing and sales prices balance out. Our operating result estimate for oilseed products is somewhat cautious at 0.8 MEUR (Q3’24: 1.1 MEUR) and 3.2 MEUR (stable y/y) for Food Solutions. In the comparison period, the company's efficiency in Food Solutions' seasonal production was perhaps even better than usual, which was affected by the company's improved processes and the quality of the harvest. The Q3 report will likely indicate the quality of the raw material from the past harvest season, which will probably also affect Q4 earnings.

Organic earnings outlook favorable, acquisition could weigh on 2026 earnings

Apetit has guided for its operating profit to decrease slightly year-on-year (2024: 9.4 MEUR). The company added in connection with the Foodhills acquisition release published on October 9 that, without the earnings impact of the acquisition, the guidance outlook remains unchanged. Our estimate, without the impact of the acquisition, is 7.7 MEUR, and in addition, we estimate the acquired company will cause an operational EBIT impact of around -0.3 MEUR. The company will record a significant one-off positive earnings impact upon the completion of the transaction (likely in Q4) due to the purchase price being lower than the acquisition's balance sheet value. We expect the weakening of EBIT to have materialized mainly in H1, and the organic earnings outlook for H2 is quite stable. Organically, the earnings outlook for 2026 is good, but we believe the loss-making of the acquired Foodhills causes uncertainty in the earnings development. Apetit estimates the earnings impact of the acquisition to be neutral or slightly negative in the short term, after which the earnings impact is estimated to be slightly positive. Foodhills' median EBIT in 2020-24 has been -33 MSEK (around -3 MEUR), so turning the earnings positive necessitates a significant improvement from the past. On the other hand, this is the only major producer of frozen peas in Sweden, and Apetit has a long experience in the industry. We expect the company to provide more information on the transaction and the development of the target company in the near future.