Translation: Original published in Finnish on 10/13/2026 at 08:28 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Apetit will publish its Q3 report on Friday, October 23. We expect revenue to have grown, driven by the Swedish acquisition, but comparable profitability to remain below the comparison period. In our estimate, earnings are depressed particularly by losses in the Swedish pea business and weaker-than-comparison-period pressing margins in Oilseed Products, whereas the result of Food Solutions in Finland is supported by a successful harvest season. We expect the company to reiterate its guidance updated in August, and we will focus on the progress of the earnings turnaround in the Swedish operations and the market situation of Oilseed Products.

Revenue grows through the acquisition in Sweden

We expect Apetit's revenue to have grown by just under 9% in Q3. In our estimates, growth is driven by the Food Solutions segment, whose revenue we expect to have increased by 3.2 MEUR (17% y-o-y) through the Foodhills pea business acquired at the end of 2025. Our organic growth expectation for Food Solutions is low at 1%. In Oilseed Products, we estimate revenue to have grown by 2% y-o-y, which would represent a significant positive turnaround in growth development. In H1, Oilseed Products' revenue decreased by 9%, weighed down by factors such as the low price of feed, which pushed down the value of sales. However, we believe that the elevated market price of rapeseed will increase the revenue outlook.

Sweden's losses and pressing margins weigh on profitability

We estimate that the Q3 adjusted EBIT will fall to 2.6 MEUR (Q3'25: 3.6 MEUR). In Food Solutions, we expect a moderately decreasing adjusted EBIT of 2.6 MEUR (Q3'25: 3.1 MEUR). The earnings of the Finnish operations are supported by a record-high and high-quality pea harvest, but the segment's overall profitability is burdened by the unprofitable pea business in Sweden and a harvest weakened by drought. In Oilseed Products, we forecast EBIT to have decreased to 0.7 MEUR (Q3’ 25: 1.2 MEUR). Oilseed Products' earnings have recently been under pressure due to, e.g., low feed prices, relatively high raw material costs, and consequently weak pressing margins (H1 EBIT was -1.6 MEUR). We expect earnings to recover from the losses in the early part of the year in Q3, but to nonetheless remain below the comparison period. We expect the share of profit from the associated company Sucros to have been at zero (Q3'25: -0.2 MEUR).

Guidance reiteration expected, eyes on the drivers of the turnaround

Apetit issued a profit warning in August and lowered its guidance for the current year. The company expects the group's EBIT for 2026 to be -2.0 to +1.0 MEUR. We expect the company to reiterate this guidance in conjunction with the Q3 report. Our estimate for the full-year reported EBIT is -1.6 MEUR, which is within the guidance range, albeit at the lower end, and includes non-recurring items related to the closure of the Pudasjärvi pizza factory (1 MEUR estimated for Q4). To reach its reported EBIT guidance after a weak start to the year, H2 EBIT must be 3.8–6.8 MEUR (our estimate 4.3 MEUR).

In the report, we focus particularly on the outlook for the pea business in Sweden and measures to improve profitability despite the poor harvest. In addition, we will focus on the pressing margins and other profitability drivers of Oilseed Products. Although Finland's strong harvest creates a good foundation for Food Solutions' operations in Finland for the remainder of the year, visibility into the broader earnings turnaround targeted by the company remains limited.