Apetit Q4'25 preview: The last quarter is not exciting, but eyes are turning to the future

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/05/2026 at 07:00 am EET

Source: Inderes

Apetit publishes its Q4 results on Friday, February 13, at around 8:30 am EET. Operational earnings will weaken year-on-year due to, e.g., seasonal production shifting over the turn of the year. In addition, Q4 figures are affected by, e.g., a large positive non-recurring earnings impact related to the Foodhills transaction. We expect the company to improve its adjusted EBIT during 2026, but we see a risk that Foodhills' loss-making will continue and, at least in the short term, hide some of the earnings growth potential. Apetit also recently published a new strategy and will present it to investors at a separate press conference on Tuesday, February 17, 2026. 

Food Solutions drove revenue growth towards the end of the year

We expect Apetit to have increased its revenue by 6% in Q4. Most of the growth is related to the acquisition of the Swedish pea business Foodhills, which was completed at the end of November. Foodhills is part of the Food Solutions segment, for which we estimate total growth of 10% and organic growth of 4%. For Oilseed Products, we do not expect significant growth (only 1%) as the market price level has been broadly stable or slightly decreasing over the past year. 

Seasonal production delays weakened Q4 operational result

Based on the profit warning issued by Apetit in December, it can be concluded that Q4 comparable earnings will weaken from the previous year. The company justified the profit warning by the delay in harvest season production due to operational reasons. The company typically processes and stores large quantities of vegetables in H2 and records the earnings impact through an increase in the value of inventories. A larger portion of this seasonal production was carried over from the previous year, which has weakened the 2025 result, but according to Apetit, it does not significantly affect the overall result of Food Solutions. Based on the new guidance, 2025 EBIT is estimated to be 5.6-6.6 MEUR, excluding the impact of the acquisition, whereas previously the company expected EBIT to decrease slightly year on year (2024: 9.3 MEUR).

We expect Q4 adjusted EBITA to decrease slightly to 2.9 MEUR (Q4'24: 4.2 MEUR) and adjusted EBIT to fall to 0.9 MEUR (Q4'24: 2.4 MEUR). Our estimated full-year 2025 adj. EBIT is 5.5 MEUR, which is at the lower end of the guidance. However, our estimate only adjusts for the positive earnings impact of the Foodhills transaction (estimated at 9 MEUR), but not for transaction-related costs and Foodhills' operational EBIT loss for the rest of the year. The reported EBIT for Q4 is estimated to reach as high as 9.9 MEUR in our forecasts, as the acquisition price of Foodhills was lower than its balance sheet value. This will result in a one-off positive earnings impact from the bargain purchase in Q4 (the company's estimate is 8-10.5 MEUR, our estimate is 9 MEUR).

We expect the dividend to decrease

We expect Apetit to propose a dividend of EUR 0.65 per share for 2025. The company has a strong balance sheet, which allows it to pay dividends exceeding adjusted earnings per share (adj. EPS 2025e EUR 0.47). We estimate net debt to be 11 MEUR at the end of 2025, which is only 0.8x EBITDA. We assume that Apetit will use adjusted EPS as the basis for dividend payments, which does not include the positive accounting impact of the Foodhills transaction. The reported EPS for 2025 will be very high at nearly EUR 2 per share.

Expecting an upward-pointing guidance

We estimate Apetit's adjusted EBIT to grow to 7.0 MEUR during 2026. The biggest question mark in the forecast is related to Foodhills’ performance. The business has been significantly unprofitable for years, and in our figures, it will still be in the red at -2.4 MEUR (EBIT) in 2026. Without the impact of Foodhills, we estimate Apetit's earnings would improve to as much as 9.3 MEUR, supported by, e.g., the normalization of Oilseed Products' profitability due to stabilizing raw material prices and, on the other hand, volume growth in Food Solutions. The commercialization of Apetit's BlackGrain ingredient has recently progressed, and in addition, the company has, e.g., invested in vegetable oils with a new bottling line. In addition, vegetable production volumes have been raised during 2025, partly with exports in mind. If Foodhills' earnings were to turn around faster than we expect, it could have a positive impact on the investment case relative to our current stance.